Language:English
Gael Monfils v Learner Tien
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gael Monfils (Local)
Prediction 19.13%5.23fair odd
EV +6.15%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.083%
assuming max odds 5.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%19.20%18.96%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.874.855.5523.81%20.55%20.62%18.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Learner Tien (Visit)
Prediction 80.87%1.24fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -14.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.78%80.80%81.04%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2087.72%84.73%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gael Monfils (Local): 19.13%; Learner Tien (Visit): 80.87%. For Gael Monfils (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.23. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.41%EV +6.15%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.083% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.41%EV +6.15%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.083% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.54I 18.05%NM 17.68%EV +5.96%E +1.08%K +1.31%G +0.078% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.32%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-09-03 22:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.19%E +0.944%K +1.15%G +0.060% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.99%E -6.08%K -46.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 21:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +3.28%E +0.607%K +0.745%G +0.024% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 21:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +0.411%E +0.078%K +0.097%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-03 21:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV -0.545%E -0.105%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-03 19:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV -0.545%E -0.105%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-03 19:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -0.545%E -0.105%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.99%E -6.08%K -46.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -2.46%E -0.482%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 21:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -2.46%E -0.482%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 19:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.46%E -0.482%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.99%E -6.08%K -46.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -3.41%E -0.676%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 19:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 14:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 19:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.80%E -6.85%K -55.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.24%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 19:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.24%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 19:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 21:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 15:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.70%EV -8.00%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.30%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 20:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -8.20%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -8.20%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.78I 20.92%NM 19.80%EV -8.58%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.20%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 14:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.15%E -1.93%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.15%E -1.93%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.15%E -1.93%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 19:53 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.17%EV -9.92%E -2.11%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.83%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 14:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 19:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 19:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.93%E -3.10%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 18:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.93%E -3.10%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -19.67%E -4.68%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 13:37 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.89% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 82.11% | -0.2% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 1.3% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| Novig◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 1.3% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.27% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.73% | 1.6% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |