Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gael Monfils v Learner Tien

2026-09-03 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gael Monfils (Local)

Prediction 23.99%4.17fair odd

EV +5.57%

Edge +1.27%

Kelly +1.64%

Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.15%24.00%23.89%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.603.883.854.4027.78%25.77%25.97%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Learner Tien (Visit)

Prediction 76.01%1.32fair odd

EV -1.95%

Edge -1.51%

Kelly -6.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.77%76.00%76.11%78.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.241.241.2984.75%80.75%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gael Monfils (Local): 23.99%; Learner Tien (Visit): 76.01%. For Gael Monfils (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.25, producing a positive expected value of +1.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV +1.97%E +0.464%K +0.607%G +0.012%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.79%E -7.33%K -43.96%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-02 04:44
888sport🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.773%E +0.184%K +0.241%G +0.002%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-02 06:55
Coolbet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -1.63%E -0.397%K -0.525%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -3.47%E -2.73%K -12.86%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-09-02 05:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -1.63%E -0.397%K -0.525%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.51%E -5.29%K -28.31%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 06:55
Betway🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.99%E -3.99%K -19.97%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 05:00
theScore Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-02 06:55
Caesars🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-02 05:36
MyBookie.ag🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.75%E -4.64%K -23.97%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-02 04:45
LeoVegas🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-02 06:55
1xBet🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.71%E -2.12%K -9.68%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-02 05:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.99%E -3.99%K -19.97%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-02 05:39
Betr (AU)🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.99%E -3.99%K -19.97%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-02 06:35
Fliff🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.75%E -4.64%K -23.97%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-02 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -8.82%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.23%E -3.36%K -16.28%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 05:19
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.82%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.99%E -3.99%K -19.97%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-02 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.82%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.75%E -4.64%K -23.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-02 04:45
GTbets🎯	3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -9.30%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.15%EV -4.99%E -3.99%K -19.97%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-02 05:50
Bovada🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -10.02%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.95%E -1.51%K -6.73%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-02 05:50
betfred_uk🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.02%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.99%E -3.99%K -19.97%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 05:39
DraftKings🎯	3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -3.47%E -2.73%K -12.86%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-02 05:50
PlayUp🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.71%E -2.12%K -9.68%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-02 06:30
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-09-02 04:45
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-09-02 04:45
ReBet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -7.27%E -5.96%K -33.05%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-09-02 04:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.79%E -7.33%K -43.96%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-09-02 06:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.96%	1.28I 78.13%NM 78.04%	0.1%	2026-09-02 06:50
Novig◎	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%	3.1%	2026-09-02 06:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%	5.5%	2026-09-02 06:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%	5.5%	2026-09-02 06:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%	5.5%	2026-09-02 06:45
Matchbook◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%	5.5%	2026-09-02 06:45
Smarkets◎	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%	6.6%	2026-09-02 04:55