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Bookmaker Calibration
This page measures how accurately each predictor forecasts real results. Every tracked bookmaker and each Odds.School estimator is scored by the same rule — none hidden for scoring poorly — so you can compare whether aggregating the market predicts better or worse than any single book. Any predictor here, including a single sharp bookmaker, can be adopted as your model elsewhere on the site.
Accuracy of every bookmaker on every settled game in the last 14 days, scored at two snapshots: the closing line (last tick before kickoff) and 24 hours before kickoff.
Over the last 14 days the site’s own estimator scores above 63 of 79 tracked bookmakers on two-way markets at the closing line, measured on 451 settled games against the leading bookmaker’s 134.
Brier here is the multi-class Brier score averaged per game. Lower is better. Base-rate Brier is the score the climatology predictor (always predict the realized outcome frequencies) would have achieved on the same games this bookmaker covered. BSS = 1 − Brier / Base-rate Brier; higher = better skill, 0 = matches climatology, negative = worse than it.
Last tick before commence (closing line)
810 settled games scored, 86 bookmakers tracked.
2-way markets (no draw slot)
| # | Bookmaker | Games | Margin | Brier | Base-rate Brier | BSS | Base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NetBet (FR) | 134 | 8.38% | 0.3671 | 0.4972 | 0.2617 | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| 2 | PMU (FR) | 192 | 8.27% | 0.3883 | 0.4998 | 0.2231 | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| 3 | betfred_uk | 156 | 5.89% | 0.3946 | 0.4960 | 0.2044 | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| 4 | Sky Bet | 157 | 6.23% | 0.3958 | 0.4966 | 0.2029 | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| 5 | Ladbrokes (AU) | 438 | 5.63% | 0.4221 | 0.5000 | 0.1558 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 6 | Unibet | 437 | 5.23% | 0.4222 | 0.5000 | 0.1556 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 7 | BetOnline.ag | 419 | 3.21% | 0.4225 | 0.5000 | 0.1550 | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| 8 | Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 274 | 5.26% | 0.4231 | 0.4999 | 0.1536 | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| 9 | ProphetX | 364 | 1.36% | 0.4240 | 0.4998 | 0.1515 | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| 10 | Betr (AU) | 429 | 5.68% | 0.4243 | 0.5000 | 0.1515 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 11 | Pinnacle | 392 | 2.63% | 0.4250 | 0.4998 | 0.1496 | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| 12 | DraftKings | 415 | 4.66% | 0.4253 | 0.5000 | 0.1493 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 13 | TABtouch | 422 | 5.53% | 0.4261 | 0.4999 | 0.1476 | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| 14 | FanDuel | 407 | 3.96% | 0.4263 | 0.5000 | 0.1475 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 15 | Betfair Exchange (AU) | 425 | 1.58% | 0.4265 | 0.5000 | 0.1470 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 16 | SportsBet | 417 | 5.65% | 0.4269 | 0.5000 | 0.1461 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 17 | Odds.School — Recency-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 451 | — | 0.4273 | 0.5000 | 0.1454 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 18 | Paddy Power | 407 | 6.78% | 0.4272 | 0.4999 | 0.1454 | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| 19 | Odds.School — Margin-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 451 | — | 0.4273 | 0.5000 | 0.1453 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 20 | Odds.School — Median (Vetted List) | 451 | — | 0.4273 | 0.5000 | 0.1453 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 21 | Odds.School — Interquartile mean (Vetted List) | 451 | — | 0.4273 | 0.5000 | 0.1453 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 22 | Odds.School — Mean (Vetted List) | 451 | — | 0.4275 | 0.5000 | 0.1450 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 23 | Betfair Exchange (UK) | 409 | 1.10% | 0.4276 | 0.4999 | 0.1446 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 24 | Bally Bet | 404 | 5.37% | 0.4278 | 0.5000 | 0.1444 | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| 25 | Betfair Exchange (EU) | 409 | 1.11% | 0.4278 | 0.4999 | 0.1442 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 26 | Grosvenor | 400 | 7.00% | 0.4279 | 0.5000 | 0.1442 | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| 27 | PlayUp | 383 | 5.46% | 0.4278 | 0.4994 | 0.1434 | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| 28 | NordicBet | 400 | 5.79% | 0.4291 | 0.4999 | 0.1417 | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| 29 | Neds | 419 | 5.65% | 0.4292 | 0.5000 | 0.1415 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 30 | BetUS | 378 | 3.85% | 0.4294 | 0.4999 | 0.1412 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 31 | BetRivers | 414 | 4.71% | 0.4295 | 0.5000 | 0.1409 | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| 32 | TAB | 403 | 5.36% | 0.4296 | 0.4999 | 0.1407 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 33 | Unibet (NL) | 418 | 4.98% | 0.4298 | 0.5000 | 0.1404 | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| 34 | Unibet (UK) | 394 | 4.47% | 0.4297 | 0.4998 | 0.1403 | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| 35 | Bovada | 395 | 4.56% | 0.4301 | 0.5000 | 0.1398 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 36 | Coolbet | 372 | 4.57% | 0.4303 | 0.5000 | 0.1393 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 37 | Matchbook | 391 | 1.81% | 0.4307 | 0.4998 | 0.1384 | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| 38 | BetAnything | 389 | 4.01% | 0.4309 | 0.5000 | 0.1382 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 39 | Betsson | 389 | 5.75% | 0.4309 | 0.4997 | 0.1377 | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| 40 | Novig | 389 | 1.40% | 0.4313 | 0.4999 | 0.1372 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 41 | betPARX | 398 | 5.15% | 0.4319 | 0.4999 | 0.1361 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 42 | Fliff | 328 | 6.41% | 0.4319 | 0.4991 | 0.1346 | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| 43 | Bet Victor | 367 | 7.19% | 0.4327 | 0.5000 | 0.1345 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 44 | BoyleSports | 290 | 5.70% | 0.4330 | 0.4998 | 0.1337 | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| 45 | 888sport | 382 | 5.92% | 0.4332 | 0.4999 | 0.1334 | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| 46 | Betway | 395 | 5.58% | 0.4333 | 0.5000 | 0.1334 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 47 | LeoVegas (SE) | 403 | 5.69% | 0.4334 | 0.5000 | 0.1332 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 48 | Unibet (SE) | 403 | 4.95% | 0.4337 | 0.5000 | 0.1326 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 49 | ATG (SE) | 389 | 5.15% | 0.4336 | 0.4997 | 0.1324 | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| 50 | Hard Rock Bet | 395 | 4.37% | 0.4339 | 0.4999 | 0.1320 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 51 | betano_uk | 363 | 7.18% | 0.4340 | 0.4999 | 0.1318 | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| 52 | Caesars | 387 | 4.91% | 0.4340 | 0.4998 | 0.1317 | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| 53 | LowVig.ag | 383 | 3.14% | 0.4344 | 0.5000 | 0.1312 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 54 | BetMGM | 377 | 5.19% | 0.4343 | 0.4998 | 0.1311 | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| 55 | ReBet | 372 | 4.64% | 0.4346 | 0.4999 | 0.1306 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 56 | PointsBet (AU) | 394 | 5.31% | 0.4352 | 0.4999 | 0.1293 | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| 57 | Fanatics | 380 | 5.03% | 0.4355 | 0.4999 | 0.1288 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 58 | GTbets | 293 | 3.25% | 0.4354 | 0.4993 | 0.1279 | 51.9% / 48.1% |
| 59 | Dabble (AU) | 382 | 5.40% | 0.4362 | 0.4999 | 0.1275 | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| 60 | Mr Green (SE) | 373 | 5.92% | 0.4366 | 0.4997 | 0.1263 | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| 61 | LeoVegas | 309 | 6.56% | 0.4369 | 0.5000 | 0.1261 | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| 62 | Casumo | 380 | 5.17% | 0.4370 | 0.5000 | 0.1260 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 63 | 888sport (SE) | 373 | 5.92% | 0.4370 | 0.4997 | 0.1255 | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| 64 | Svenska Spel | 378 | 4.45% | 0.4372 | 0.4998 | 0.1251 | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| 65 | theScore Bet | 386 | 4.69% | 0.4379 | 0.5000 | 0.1242 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 66 | Bet Right | 304 | 4.97% | 0.4358 | 0.4969 | 0.1229 | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| 67 | Betclic (FR) | 340 | 7.57% | 0.4389 | 0.5000 | 0.1222 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 68 | Virgin Bet | 360 | 5.79% | 0.4401 | 0.5000 | 0.1199 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 69 | LiveScore Bet | 360 | 5.78% | 0.4402 | 0.5000 | 0.1196 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 70 | Winamax (FR) | 356 | 6.42% | 0.4403 | 0.5000 | 0.1193 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 71 | 1xBet | 344 | 3.24% | 0.4405 | 0.4999 | 0.1188 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 72 | Ladbrokes (UK) | 354 | 5.66% | 0.4407 | 0.5000 | 0.1186 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 73 | Marathon Bet | 307 | 5.45% | 0.4411 | 0.4999 | 0.1176 | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| 74 | Coral | 354 | 5.67% | 0.4424 | 0.5000 | 0.1153 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 75 | William Hill | 342 | 5.79% | 0.4426 | 0.5000 | 0.1148 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 76 | Unibet (FR) | 338 | 6.11% | 0.4431 | 0.5000 | 0.1137 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 77 | Smarkets | 347 | 2.36% | 0.4440 | 0.5000 | 0.1120 | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| 78 | Winamax (DE) | 348 | 4.88% | 0.4441 | 0.5000 | 0.1118 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 79 | Tipico (DE) | 300 | 7.06% | 0.4498 | 0.5000 | 0.1004 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 80 | Everygame | 165 | 3.29% | 0.4532 | 0.5000 | 0.0937 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 81 | Kalshi | 222 | 1.24% | 0.4570 | 0.4951 | 0.0770 | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| 82 | Polymarket | 230 | 1.07% | 0.4580 | 0.4954 | 0.0755 | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| 83 | MyBookie.ag | 225 | 4.21% | 0.4637 | 0.4978 | 0.0685 | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| 84 | BetOpenly | 155 | 2.04% | 0.4862 | 0.5000 | 0.0275 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
3-way markets (home / away / draw)
| # | Bookmaker | Games | Margin | Brier | Base-rate Brier | BSS | Base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LeoVegas | 246 | 8.70% | 0.5896 | 0.6451 | 0.0861 | 44.7% / 30.9% / 24.4% |
| 2 | Winamax (DE) | 241 | 10.00% | 0.5986 | 0.6401 | 0.0648 | 46.5% / 28.6% / 24.9% |
| 3 | Winamax (FR) | 235 | 12.70% | 0.5962 | 0.6371 | 0.0642 | 47.2% / 28.1% / 24.7% |
| 4 | Tipico (DE) | 261 | 9.06% | 0.6044 | 0.6453 | 0.0634 | 45.2% / 28.4% / 26.4% |
| 5 | NordicBet | 342 | 7.09% | 0.5905 | 0.6297 | 0.0622 | 48.8% / 27.8% / 23.4% |
| 6 | Betsson | 332 | 7.04% | 0.5926 | 0.6316 | 0.0618 | 48.5% / 27.4% / 24.1% |
| 7 | GTbets | 150 | 5.70% | 0.6078 | 0.6472 | 0.0609 | 44.7% / 28.7% / 26.7% |
| 8 | Unibet (FR) | 253 | 11.97% | 0.5994 | 0.6362 | 0.0579 | 47.4% / 28.1% / 24.5% |
| 9 | Coral | 202 | 11.13% | 0.6098 | 0.6461 | 0.0561 | 45.0% / 27.2% / 27.7% |
| 10 | PointsBet (AU) | 188 | 7.61% | 0.6141 | 0.6503 | 0.0557 | 43.6% / 26.6% / 29.8% |
| 11 | BetAnything | 184 | 4.99% | 0.6128 | 0.6451 | 0.0501 | 45.1% / 25.5% / 29.3% |
| 12 | 1xBet | 332 | 5.22% | 0.6054 | 0.6359 | 0.0479 | 47.6% / 27.4% / 25.0% |
| 13 | Odds.School — Median (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6028 | 0.6328 | 0.0474 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 14 | Odds.School — Margin-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6029 | 0.6328 | 0.0472 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 15 | Ladbrokes (AU) | 179 | 11.13% | 0.6166 | 0.6472 | 0.0472 | 44.7% / 26.8% / 28.5% |
| 16 | Odds.School — Mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6030 | 0.6328 | 0.0472 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 17 | William Hill | 222 | 10.13% | 0.6123 | 0.6426 | 0.0472 | 45.9% / 26.1% / 27.9% |
| 18 | Odds.School — Interquartile mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6030 | 0.6328 | 0.0471 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 19 | Odds.School — Recency-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6030 | 0.6328 | 0.0471 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 20 | Marathon Bet | 302 | 7.30% | 0.6098 | 0.6395 | 0.0464 | 46.7% / 28.1% / 25.2% |
| 21 | betano_uk | 208 | 8.39% | 0.5969 | 0.6248 | 0.0447 | 50.0% / 26.0% / 24.0% |
| 22 | Betclic (FR) | 181 | 11.94% | 0.6147 | 0.6426 | 0.0435 | 45.9% / 28.7% / 25.4% |
| 23 | Bovada | 317 | 7.38% | 0.6045 | 0.6318 | 0.0432 | 48.6% / 26.2% / 25.2% |
| 24 | Bet Victor | 208 | 8.37% | 0.5979 | 0.6248 | 0.0432 | 50.0% / 26.0% / 24.0% |
| 25 | Casumo | 252 | 7.65% | 0.6101 | 0.6375 | 0.0430 | 47.2% / 25.4% / 27.4% |
| 26 | BetUS | 223 | 6.17% | 0.6146 | 0.6412 | 0.0416 | 46.2% / 25.1% / 28.7% |
| 27 | Smarkets | 243 | 1.72% | 0.6033 | 0.6288 | 0.0405 | 49.0% / 28.0% / 23.0% |
| 28 | Svenska Spel | 253 | 6.30% | 0.6124 | 0.6382 | 0.0405 | 47.0% / 25.3% / 27.7% |
| 29 | ATG (SE) | 253 | 6.31% | 0.6124 | 0.6382 | 0.0404 | 47.0% / 25.3% / 27.7% |
| 30 | Fanatics | 205 | 7.03% | 0.6055 | 0.6306 | 0.0398 | 48.8% / 26.8% / 24.4% |
| 31 | PMU (FR) | 219 | 12.20% | 0.6123 | 0.6366 | 0.0382 | 47.5% / 26.0% / 26.5% |
| 32 | Matchbook | 230 | 0.88% | 0.6239 | 0.6481 | 0.0373 | 44.3% / 26.5% / 29.1% |
| 33 | BetMGM | 256 | 7.89% | 0.6089 | 0.6324 | 0.0373 | 48.4% / 26.2% / 25.4% |
| 34 | BoyleSports | 264 | 12.59% | 0.6089 | 0.6322 | 0.0369 | 48.5% / 25.8% / 25.8% |
| 35 | Coolbet | 275 | 5.13% | 0.6141 | 0.6375 | 0.0367 | 47.3% / 25.8% / 26.9% |
| 36 | Pinnacle | 312 | 3.90% | 0.6121 | 0.6353 | 0.0365 | 47.8% / 26.9% / 25.3% |
| 37 | Codere (IT) | 169 | 7.74% | 0.6084 | 0.6313 | 0.0362 | 47.9% / 30.2% / 21.9% |
| 38 | Ladbrokes (UK) | 238 | 10.37% | 0.6158 | 0.6384 | 0.0354 | 47.1% / 26.5% / 26.5% |
| 39 | Neds | 215 | 10.72% | 0.6198 | 0.6420 | 0.0346 | 46.0% / 25.6% / 28.4% |
| 40 | TABtouch | 275 | 8.67% | 0.6157 | 0.6372 | 0.0338 | 47.3% / 25.1% / 27.6% |
| 41 | Grosvenor | 275 | 8.03% | 0.6158 | 0.6372 | 0.0337 | 47.3% / 25.1% / 27.6% |
| 42 | BetOnline.ag | 329 | 4.79% | 0.6136 | 0.6343 | 0.0327 | 48.0% / 26.1% / 25.8% |
| 43 | 888sport (SE) | 234 | 10.26% | 0.6062 | 0.6265 | 0.0324 | 49.6% / 23.5% / 26.9% |
| 44 | Everygame | 205 | 8.63% | 0.6243 | 0.6449 | 0.0319 | 45.4% / 26.8% / 27.8% |
| 45 | Unibet (NL) | 269 | 7.67% | 0.6158 | 0.6360 | 0.0319 | 47.6% / 25.3% / 27.1% |
| 46 | Mr Green (SE) | 246 | 10.23% | 0.6107 | 0.6306 | 0.0316 | 48.8% / 24.4% / 26.8% |
| 47 | 888sport | 236 | 10.25% | 0.6073 | 0.6267 | 0.0308 | 49.6% / 23.7% / 26.7% |
| 48 | Betr (AU) | 229 | 8.85% | 0.6129 | 0.6323 | 0.0307 | 48.5% / 25.3% / 26.2% |
| 49 | NetBet (FR) | 132 | 14.54% | 0.5993 | 0.6177 | 0.0297 | 47.7% / 35.6% / 16.7% |
| 50 | betPARX | 255 | 7.72% | 0.6208 | 0.6397 | 0.0296 | 46.7% / 25.5% / 27.8% |
| 51 | Sky Bet | 259 | 11.78% | 0.6209 | 0.6398 | 0.0295 | 46.7% / 27.0% / 26.3% |
| 52 | betfred_uk | 278 | 9.53% | 0.6195 | 0.6381 | 0.0293 | 47.1% / 26.6% / 26.3% |
| 53 | PlayUp | 289 | 9.55% | 0.6226 | 0.6409 | 0.0285 | 46.4% / 25.6% / 28.0% |
| 54 | DraftKings | 316 | 6.07% | 0.6112 | 0.6281 | 0.0269 | 49.4% / 25.6% / 25.0% |
| 55 | Bet Right | 239 | 9.26% | 0.6120 | 0.6280 | 0.0255 | 49.4% / 24.7% / 25.9% |
| 56 | Betway | 290 | 7.87% | 0.6177 | 0.6332 | 0.0244 | 48.3% / 25.9% / 25.9% |
| 57 | LowVig.ag | 315 | 4.69% | 0.6159 | 0.6303 | 0.0230 | 48.9% / 25.1% / 26.0% |
| 58 | BetRivers | 292 | 8.11% | 0.6201 | 0.6346 | 0.0229 | 47.9% / 26.4% / 25.7% |
| 59 | Betfair Exchange (EU) | 326 | 0.91% | 0.6156 | 0.6295 | 0.0221 | 49.1% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 60 | FanDuel | 306 | 7.09% | 0.6142 | 0.6281 | 0.0220 | 49.3% / 24.5% / 26.1% |
| 61 | SportsBet | 326 | 8.34% | 0.6157 | 0.6295 | 0.0219 | 49.1% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 62 | Betfair Exchange (UK) | 326 | 1.09% | 0.6165 | 0.6295 | 0.0207 | 49.1% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 63 | Betfair Exchange (AU) | 326 | 1.12% | 0.6166 | 0.6295 | 0.0204 | 49.1% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 64 | Virgin Bet | 325 | 10.28% | 0.6178 | 0.6302 | 0.0197 | 48.9% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 65 | LiveScore Bet | 325 | 10.26% | 0.6179 | 0.6302 | 0.0196 | 48.9% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 66 | Unibet | 325 | 7.51% | 0.6179 | 0.6302 | 0.0196 | 48.9% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 67 | LeoVegas (SE) | 325 | 8.73% | 0.6179 | 0.6302 | 0.0195 | 48.9% / 25.5% / 25.5% |
| 68 | Unibet (SE) | 317 | 7.11% | 0.6195 | 0.6318 | 0.0194 | 48.6% / 25.2% / 26.2% |
| 69 | Paddy Power | 320 | 10.83% | 0.6187 | 0.6310 | 0.0194 | 48.8% / 25.9% / 25.3% |
| 70 | Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 271 | 11.04% | 0.6234 | 0.6342 | 0.0170 | 48.0% / 24.7% / 27.3% |
| 71 | Unibet (UK) | 234 | 6.88% | 0.6309 | 0.6388 | 0.0124 | 46.6% / 29.5% / 23.9% |
| 72 | Hard Rock Bet | 46 | 6.13% | 0.5602 | 0.5643 | 0.0072 | 58.7% / 15.2% / 26.1% |
| 73 | Bally Bet | 48 | 6.64% | 0.5623 | 0.5512 | -0.0201 | 60.4% / 14.6% / 25.0% |
| 74 | Kalshi | 152 | 2.01% | 0.6534 | 0.6371 | -0.0256 | 47.4% / 26.3% / 26.3% |
| 75 | Caesars | 46 | 6.45% | 0.5621 | 0.5444 | -0.0324 | 60.9% / 13.0% / 26.1% |
| 76 | theScore Bet | 106 | 6.19% | 0.5921 | 0.5717 | -0.0356 | 58.5% / 20.8% / 20.8% |
| 77 | TAB | 30 | 7.79% | 0.5782 | 0.5578 | -0.0366 | 56.7% / 10.0% / 33.3% |
| 78 | Fliff | 56 | 11.12% | 0.5876 | 0.5536 | -0.0615 | 60.7% / 21.4% / 17.9% |
24 hours before commence (early-bird line)
702 settled games scored, 86 bookmakers tracked.
2-way markets (no draw slot)
| # | Bookmaker | Games | Margin | Brier | Base-rate Brier | BSS | Base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 34 | 5.61% | 0.3732 | 0.4983 | 0.2509 | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| 2 | PMU (FR) | 150 | 7.53% | 0.3856 | 0.4996 | 0.2283 | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| 3 | Betway | 178 | 5.44% | 0.3881 | 0.4984 | 0.2212 | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| 4 | Betfair Exchange (AU) | 191 | 5.95% | 0.3886 | 0.4977 | 0.2192 | 46.6% / 53.4% |
| 5 | Betfair Exchange (UK) | 175 | 5.99% | 0.3895 | 0.4980 | 0.2180 | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| 6 | Betfair Exchange (EU) | 175 | 6.03% | 0.3898 | 0.4980 | 0.2174 | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| 7 | Unibet | 245 | 5.36% | 0.3940 | 0.4939 | 0.2024 | 44.5% / 55.5% |
| 8 | Coolbet | 182 | 4.09% | 0.3992 | 0.4961 | 0.1953 | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| 9 | BoyleSports | 176 | 6.35% | 0.4032 | 0.4984 | 0.1910 | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| 10 | TABtouch | 232 | 5.37% | 0.4015 | 0.4946 | 0.1883 | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| 11 | NetBet (FR) | 111 | 9.02% | 0.4037 | 0.4967 | 0.1872 | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| 12 | ATG (SE) | 201 | 5.19% | 0.4029 | 0.4945 | 0.1853 | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| 13 | Betsson | 213 | 5.84% | 0.4061 | 0.4981 | 0.1848 | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| 14 | Ladbrokes (AU) | 299 | 5.70% | 0.4086 | 0.4999 | 0.1825 | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| 15 | LeoVegas | 153 | 7.71% | 0.4060 | 0.4952 | 0.1801 | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| 16 | Bally Bet | 214 | 5.23% | 0.4048 | 0.4926 | 0.1783 | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| 17 | BetRivers | 224 | 5.18% | 0.4058 | 0.4922 | 0.1754 | 43.8% / 56.3% |
| 18 | Dabble (AU) | 175 | 5.39% | 0.4046 | 0.4898 | 0.1738 | 42.9% / 57.1% |
| 19 | ProphetX | 103 | 3.32% | 0.4132 | 0.5000 | 0.1736 | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| 20 | Unibet (NL) | 228 | 5.10% | 0.4073 | 0.4925 | 0.1729 | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| 21 | Sky Bet | 125 | 6.07% | 0.4091 | 0.4946 | 0.1728 | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| 22 | betPARX | 208 | 5.18% | 0.4086 | 0.4922 | 0.1699 | 43.8% / 56.3% |
| 23 | betfred_uk | 123 | 5.80% | 0.4093 | 0.4926 | 0.1691 | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| 24 | Neds | 281 | 5.73% | 0.4166 | 0.4998 | 0.1665 | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| 25 | NordicBet | 236 | 5.84% | 0.4192 | 0.4997 | 0.1610 | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| 26 | Matchbook | 140 | 5.43% | 0.4143 | 0.4935 | 0.1605 | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| 27 | LeoVegas (SE) | 213 | 5.23% | 0.4121 | 0.4907 | 0.1602 | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| 28 | Unibet (SE) | 213 | 5.07% | 0.4121 | 0.4907 | 0.1602 | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| 29 | Hard Rock Bet | 275 | 4.49% | 0.4210 | 0.4999 | 0.1579 | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| 30 | Odds.School — Recency-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 343 | — | 0.4211 | 0.5000 | 0.1578 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 31 | Odds.School — Margin-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 343 | — | 0.4211 | 0.5000 | 0.1577 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 32 | Odds.School — Mean (Vetted List) | 343 | — | 0.4212 | 0.5000 | 0.1576 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 33 | Svenska Spel | 190 | 5.05% | 0.4156 | 0.4933 | 0.1575 | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| 34 | Odds.School — Interquartile mean (Vetted List) | 343 | — | 0.4213 | 0.5000 | 0.1574 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 35 | Odds.School — Median (Vetted List) | 343 | — | 0.4214 | 0.5000 | 0.1572 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 36 | Grosvenor | 211 | 6.39% | 0.4119 | 0.4878 | 0.1555 | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| 37 | FanDuel | 320 | 4.27% | 0.4228 | 0.5000 | 0.1544 | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| 38 | SportsBet | 337 | 5.84% | 0.4228 | 0.5000 | 0.1544 | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| 39 | BetUS | 149 | 4.30% | 0.4220 | 0.4989 | 0.1541 | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| 40 | Fanatics | 199 | 4.82% | 0.4229 | 0.4999 | 0.1540 | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| 41 | TAB | 179 | 5.84% | 0.4232 | 0.5000 | 0.1536 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 42 | Betr (AU) | 345 | 5.67% | 0.4233 | 0.5000 | 0.1533 | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| 43 | BetMGM | 250 | 5.25% | 0.4234 | 0.5000 | 0.1531 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| 44 | BetAnything | 138 | 4.84% | 0.4214 | 0.4962 | 0.1507 | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| 45 | DraftKings | 314 | 4.73% | 0.4251 | 0.4999 | 0.1496 | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| 46 | Caesars | 257 | 4.95% | 0.4250 | 0.4996 | 0.1494 | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| 47 | Paddy Power | 322 | 6.25% | 0.4261 | 0.4999 | 0.1476 | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| 48 | Bet Right | 240 | 4.98% | 0.4254 | 0.4972 | 0.1443 | 53.8% / 46.3% |
| 49 | Pinnacle | 232 | 3.21% | 0.4278 | 0.4999 | 0.1441 | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| 50 | Unibet (UK) | 315 | 5.60% | 0.4293 | 0.5000 | 0.1413 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 51 | theScore Bet | 281 | 5.31% | 0.4295 | 0.5000 | 0.1410 | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| 52 | PlayUp | 307 | 5.48% | 0.4309 | 0.4991 | 0.1367 | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| 53 | PointsBet (AU) | 321 | 5.17% | 0.4315 | 0.4998 | 0.1366 | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| 54 | GTbets | 236 | 3.54% | 0.4329 | 0.5000 | 0.1342 | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| 55 | Ladbrokes (UK) | 218 | 5.76% | 0.4329 | 0.4996 | 0.1335 | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| 56 | 888sport | 295 | 5.52% | 0.4345 | 0.4999 | 0.1308 | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| 57 | ReBet | 299 | 7.50% | 0.4347 | 0.4999 | 0.1305 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 58 | Coral | 217 | 5.76% | 0.4347 | 0.4995 | 0.1297 | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| 59 | Casumo | 193 | 5.25% | 0.4235 | 0.4854 | 0.1276 | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| 60 | Bovada | 264 | 4.47% | 0.4363 | 0.4995 | 0.1267 | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| 61 | betano_uk | 211 | 7.42% | 0.4358 | 0.4986 | 0.1261 | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| 62 | BetOnline.ag | 263 | 3.33% | 0.4378 | 0.5000 | 0.1244 | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| 63 | Mr Green (SE) | 277 | 5.50% | 0.4379 | 0.4997 | 0.1237 | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| 64 | 888sport (SE) | 277 | 5.50% | 0.4379 | 0.4997 | 0.1237 | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| 65 | Unibet (FR) | 279 | 9.66% | 0.4388 | 0.5000 | 0.1224 | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| 66 | Novig | 267 | 2.61% | 0.4396 | 0.4999 | 0.1206 | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| 67 | Bet Victor | 285 | 7.20% | 0.4413 | 0.5000 | 0.1173 | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| 68 | LiveScore Bet | 173 | 5.50% | 0.4274 | 0.4839 | 0.1168 | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| 69 | Virgin Bet | 173 | 5.50% | 0.4274 | 0.4839 | 0.1168 | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| 70 | Everygame | 49 | 7.21% | 0.4197 | 0.4748 | 0.1160 | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| 71 | MyBookie.ag | 103 | 4.26% | 0.4427 | 0.5000 | 0.1145 | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| 72 | Marathon Bet | 192 | 5.53% | 0.4373 | 0.4922 | 0.1116 | 43.8% / 56.3% |
| 73 | Tipico (DE) | 165 | 7.30% | 0.4432 | 0.4969 | 0.1080 | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| 74 | Winamax (FR) | 266 | 9.35% | 0.4460 | 0.4999 | 0.1078 | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| 75 | William Hill | 168 | 5.44% | 0.4453 | 0.4989 | 0.1073 | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| 76 | Fliff | 187 | 5.72% | 0.4420 | 0.4948 | 0.1068 | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| 77 | Betclic (FR) | 257 | 6.39% | 0.4466 | 0.4999 | 0.1066 | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| 78 | Smarkets | 268 | 8.00% | 0.4479 | 0.5000 | 0.1041 | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| 79 | Winamax (DE) | 260 | 5.14% | 0.4482 | 0.4997 | 0.1030 | 48.8% / 51.2% |
| 80 | 1xBet | 279 | 3.37% | 0.4484 | 0.4999 | 0.1030 | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| 81 | Polymarket | 181 | 1.22% | 0.4440 | 0.4933 | 0.0998 | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| 82 | Kalshi | 158 | 1.13% | 0.4461 | 0.4920 | 0.0934 | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| 83 | LowVig.ag | 229 | 3.10% | 0.4541 | 0.4999 | 0.0917 | 50.7% / 49.3% |
3-way markets (home / away / draw)
| # | Bookmaker | Games | Margin | Brier | Base-rate Brier | BSS | Base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LeoVegas | 247 | 8.75% | 0.5955 | 0.6460 | 0.0782 | 44.5% / 30.8% / 24.7% |
| 2 | Tipico (DE) | 262 | 9.03% | 0.6070 | 0.6446 | 0.0582 | 45.4% / 28.2% / 26.3% |
| 3 | Winamax (DE) | 235 | 11.37% | 0.6037 | 0.6405 | 0.0575 | 46.4% / 28.5% / 25.1% |
| 4 | GTbets | 153 | 5.79% | 0.6090 | 0.6458 | 0.0570 | 45.1% / 28.1% / 26.8% |
| 5 | Winamax (FR) | 230 | 14.55% | 0.6025 | 0.6385 | 0.0564 | 47.0% / 27.8% / 25.2% |
| 6 | PointsBet (AU) | 191 | 7.55% | 0.6137 | 0.6490 | 0.0545 | 44.0% / 26.2% / 29.8% |
| 7 | Unibet (FR) | 256 | 13.25% | 0.6045 | 0.6354 | 0.0487 | 47.7% / 27.7% / 24.6% |
| 8 | Coral | 203 | 11.03% | 0.6140 | 0.6451 | 0.0482 | 45.3% / 27.1% / 27.6% |
| 9 | Codere (IT) | 177 | 8.53% | 0.6022 | 0.6321 | 0.0474 | 47.5% / 31.1% / 21.5% |
| 10 | BetAnything | 173 | 6.51% | 0.6146 | 0.6433 | 0.0446 | 45.7% / 25.4% / 28.9% |
| 11 | Odds.School — Margin-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6051 | 0.6328 | 0.0438 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 12 | Odds.School — Mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6052 | 0.6328 | 0.0437 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 13 | Betsson | 324 | 6.88% | 0.6044 | 0.6320 | 0.0436 | 48.5% / 27.2% / 24.4% |
| 14 | Odds.School — Median (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6052 | 0.6328 | 0.0436 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 15 | Odds.School — Recency-weighted mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6053 | 0.6328 | 0.0435 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 16 | Odds.School — Interquartile mean (Vetted List) | 359 | — | 0.6053 | 0.6328 | 0.0435 | 48.2% / 27.9% / 24.0% |
| 17 | 1xBet | 339 | 5.86% | 0.6101 | 0.6362 | 0.0410 | 47.5% / 27.7% / 24.8% |
| 18 | Ladbrokes (AU) | 182 | 11.08% | 0.6193 | 0.6458 | 0.0410 | 45.1% / 26.4% / 28.6% |
| 19 | Betclic (FR) | 186 | 11.83% | 0.6195 | 0.6455 | 0.0403 | 45.2% / 28.5% / 26.3% |
| 20 | Bet Victor | 206 | 8.75% | 0.6000 | 0.6249 | 0.0398 | 50.0% / 25.7% / 24.3% |
| 21 | betano_uk | 206 | 8.75% | 0.6000 | 0.6249 | 0.0398 | 50.0% / 25.7% / 24.3% |
| 22 | BetUS | 224 | 7.14% | 0.6168 | 0.6419 | 0.0390 | 46.0% / 25.0% / 29.0% |
| 23 | NordicBet | 330 | 6.92% | 0.6043 | 0.6288 | 0.0388 | 49.1% / 27.3% / 23.6% |
| 24 | William Hill | 222 | 10.08% | 0.6181 | 0.6426 | 0.0382 | 45.9% / 26.1% / 27.9% |
| 25 | Marathon Bet | 307 | 7.29% | 0.6144 | 0.6386 | 0.0379 | 46.9% / 28.0% / 25.1% |
| 26 | Bovada | 311 | 7.40% | 0.6093 | 0.6333 | 0.0379 | 48.2% / 26.4% / 25.4% |
| 27 | Casumo | 254 | 7.72% | 0.6143 | 0.6375 | 0.0364 | 47.2% / 25.6% / 27.2% |
| 28 | Coolbet | 281 | 5.24% | 0.6130 | 0.6357 | 0.0357 | 47.7% / 25.6% / 26.7% |
| 29 | ATG (SE) | 255 | 6.39% | 0.6165 | 0.6382 | 0.0341 | 47.1% / 25.5% / 27.5% |
| 30 | Smarkets | 244 | 3.48% | 0.6106 | 0.6320 | 0.0338 | 48.4% / 27.9% / 23.8% |
| 31 | Svenska Spel | 255 | 6.33% | 0.6167 | 0.6382 | 0.0337 | 47.1% / 25.5% / 27.5% |
| 32 | Fanatics | 193 | 7.05% | 0.6076 | 0.6287 | 0.0337 | 49.2% / 25.9% / 24.9% |
| 33 | BetOnline.ag | 326 | 6.87% | 0.6153 | 0.6364 | 0.0331 | 47.5% / 26.4% / 26.1% |
| 34 | BoyleSports | 269 | 12.54% | 0.6099 | 0.6295 | 0.0312 | 49.1% / 25.3% / 25.7% |
| 35 | PMU (FR) | 219 | 12.12% | 0.6171 | 0.6366 | 0.0307 | 47.5% / 26.0% / 26.5% |
| 36 | TABtouch | 277 | 8.74% | 0.6183 | 0.6372 | 0.0297 | 47.3% / 25.3% / 27.4% |
| 37 | Grosvenor | 277 | 8.05% | 0.6185 | 0.6372 | 0.0293 | 47.3% / 25.3% / 27.4% |
| 38 | Pinnacle | 318 | 5.60% | 0.6151 | 0.6335 | 0.0291 | 48.1% / 27.4% / 24.5% |
| 39 | Ladbrokes (UK) | 239 | 10.31% | 0.6190 | 0.6375 | 0.0290 | 47.3% / 26.4% / 26.4% |
| 40 | Unibet (NL) | 271 | 7.69% | 0.6180 | 0.6360 | 0.0283 | 47.6% / 25.5% / 26.9% |
| 41 | betPARX | 257 | 7.78% | 0.6225 | 0.6397 | 0.0269 | 46.7% / 25.7% / 27.6% |
| 42 | Everygame | 221 | 10.99% | 0.6216 | 0.6384 | 0.0264 | 47.1% / 26.2% / 26.7% |
| 43 | BetMGM | 252 | 7.89% | 0.6179 | 0.6343 | 0.0259 | 48.0% / 25.8% / 26.2% |
| 44 | Sky Bet | 258 | 11.83% | 0.6241 | 0.6406 | 0.0258 | 46.5% / 27.1% / 26.4% |
| 45 | betfred_uk | 278 | 9.47% | 0.6206 | 0.6366 | 0.0252 | 47.5% / 26.6% / 25.9% |
| 46 | PlayUp | 290 | 9.90% | 0.6243 | 0.6403 | 0.0250 | 46.6% / 25.9% / 27.6% |
| 47 | Neds | 219 | 10.66% | 0.6263 | 0.6418 | 0.0241 | 46.1% / 25.6% / 28.3% |
| 48 | Betway | 279 | 7.77% | 0.6205 | 0.6358 | 0.0241 | 47.7% / 26.2% / 26.2% |
| 49 | NetBet (FR) | 132 | 14.52% | 0.6032 | 0.6177 | 0.0234 | 47.7% / 35.6% / 16.7% |
| 50 | LowVig.ag | 312 | 6.79% | 0.6183 | 0.6326 | 0.0226 | 48.4% / 25.3% / 26.3% |
| 51 | BetRivers | 295 | 8.07% | 0.6199 | 0.6338 | 0.0219 | 48.1% / 26.1% / 25.8% |
| 52 | DraftKings | 318 | 7.35% | 0.6147 | 0.6280 | 0.0213 | 49.4% / 25.8% / 24.8% |
| 53 | FanDuel | 306 | 7.61% | 0.6170 | 0.6297 | 0.0201 | 49.0% / 24.8% / 26.1% |
| 54 | 888sport | 241 | 10.23% | 0.6157 | 0.6277 | 0.0192 | 49.4% / 24.1% / 26.6% |
| 55 | SportsBet | 326 | 8.19% | 0.6191 | 0.6309 | 0.0187 | 48.8% / 25.8% / 25.5% |
| 56 | 888sport (SE) | 239 | 10.24% | 0.6161 | 0.6277 | 0.0184 | 49.4% / 23.8% / 26.8% |
| 57 | Mr Green (SE) | 251 | 10.22% | 0.6200 | 0.6315 | 0.0182 | 48.6% / 24.7% / 26.7% |
| 58 | Paddy Power | 320 | 9.72% | 0.6210 | 0.6324 | 0.0180 | 48.4% / 26.3% / 25.3% |
| 59 | Unibet (SE) | 319 | 7.18% | 0.6209 | 0.6317 | 0.0172 | 48.6% / 25.4% / 26.0% |
| 60 | LiveScore Bet | 327 | 10.35% | 0.6195 | 0.6302 | 0.0169 | 48.9% / 25.7% / 25.4% |
| 61 | Virgin Bet | 327 | 10.34% | 0.6195 | 0.6302 | 0.0169 | 48.9% / 25.7% / 25.4% |
| 62 | Unibet | 326 | 7.51% | 0.6203 | 0.6309 | 0.0168 | 48.8% / 25.8% / 25.5% |
| 63 | LeoVegas (SE) | 327 | 8.71% | 0.6198 | 0.6302 | 0.0164 | 48.9% / 25.7% / 25.4% |
| 64 | Betfair Exchange (AU) | 327 | 2.94% | 0.6202 | 0.6302 | 0.0159 | 48.9% / 25.7% / 25.4% |
| 65 | Betfair Exchange (EU) | 327 | 2.55% | 0.6210 | 0.6302 | 0.0146 | 48.9% / 25.7% / 25.4% |
| 66 | Betfair Exchange (UK) | 327 | 2.55% | 0.6211 | 0.6302 | 0.0144 | 48.9% / 25.7% / 25.4% |
| 67 | Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 258 | 7.40% | 0.6281 | 0.6357 | 0.0120 | 47.7% / 25.6% / 26.7% |
| 68 | Unibet (UK) | 231 | 6.90% | 0.6326 | 0.6395 | 0.0109 | 46.3% / 29.9% / 23.8% |
| 69 | Betr (AU) | 95 | 6.36% | 0.6210 | 0.6229 | 0.0031 | 47.4% / 17.9% / 34.7% |
| 70 | Bet Right | 213 | 8.84% | 0.6259 | 0.6273 | 0.0023 | 49.3% / 23.0% / 27.7% |
| 71 | Hard Rock Bet | 42 | 6.48% | 0.5369 | 0.5340 | -0.0054 | 61.9% / 11.9% / 26.2% |
| 72 | Matchbook | 119 | 1.53% | 0.6478 | 0.6409 | -0.0108 | 44.5% / 21.8% / 33.6% |
| 73 | Bally Bet | 48 | 6.59% | 0.5634 | 0.5512 | -0.0220 | 60.4% / 14.6% / 25.0% |
| 74 | Kalshi | 149 | 1.74% | 0.6554 | 0.6358 | -0.0307 | 47.7% / 26.8% / 25.5% |
| 75 | Fliff | 43 | 10.02% | 0.6132 | 0.5906 | -0.0382 | 55.8% / 20.9% / 23.3% |
| 76 | Caesars | 47 | 6.44% | 0.5639 | 0.5423 | -0.0398 | 61.7% / 14.9% / 23.4% |
| 77 | theScore Bet | 107 | 6.35% | 0.6001 | 0.5758 | -0.0422 | 57.9% / 20.6% / 21.5% |
| 78 | MyBookie.ag | 30 | 7.08% | 0.5847 | 0.5578 | -0.0483 | 56.7% / 10.0% / 33.3% |