Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gael Monfils v Learner Tien

Início: 2026-09-03 23:05 UTC

Final: Gael Monfils 0–3 Learner Tien

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

65 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gael Monfils (Local)

Previsão 19.13%5.23odd justa
EV +6.15%
Vantagem +1.11%
Kelly +1.35%
Crescimento +0.083%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.29%19.20%18.96%22.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.204.874.855.5523.81%20.55%20.62%18.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Learner Tien (Visitante)

Previsão 80.87%1.24odd justa
EV -2.95%
Vantagem -2.46%
Kelly -14.76%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
77.78%80.80%81.04%82.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.141.181.181.2087.72%84.73%84.75%83.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Gael Monfils (Local): 19.13%; Learner Tien (Visitante): 80.87%. Para Gael Monfils (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.23. 6 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.55, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +6.15%.

Odds das casas de apostas (65 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 17.41%EV +6.15%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.083%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-03 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 17.41%EV +6.15%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.083%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-03 22:45
Pinnacle🎯5.54I 18.05%NM 17.68%EV +5.96%E +1.08%K +1.31%G +0.078%1.19I 84.03%NM 82.32%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-03 22:30
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.19%E +0.944%K +1.15%G +0.060%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.99%E -6.08%K -46.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 21:35
FanDuel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +3.28%E +0.607%K +0.745%G +0.024%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 21:35
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +0.411%E +0.078%K +0.097%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV -0.545%E -0.105%K -0.130%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV -0.545%E -0.105%K -0.130%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -0.545%E -0.105%K -0.130%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.99%E -6.08%K -46.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 19:55
ReBet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -2.46%E -0.482%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -2.46%E -0.482%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 19:50
NetBet (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.46%E -0.482%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.99%E -6.08%K -46.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 22:14
1xBet🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -3.41%E -0.676%K -0.843%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-03 22:50
MyBookie.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 19:54
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 14:35
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 15:20
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 19:50
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:40
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:40
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:40
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:29
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 21:30
Betclic (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 22:45
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.37%E -0.874%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.80%E -6.85%K -55.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 21:30
NordicBet🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.24%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 19:49
Betsson🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.24%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 19:50
LeoVegas🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 22:15
PlayUp🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 21:40
theScore Bet🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 15:00
BetAnything🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 22:50
Fliff🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -7.24%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -6.19%E -5.33%K -38.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 22:55
BetUS🎯4.81I 20.79%NM 19.70%EV -8.00%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.30%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 20:29
Fanatics🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -8.20%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 22:50
TAB🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -8.20%E -1.71%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 22:15
GTbets🎯4.78I 20.92%NM 19.80%EV -8.58%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.20%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.15%E -1.93%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:55
betano_uk🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.15%E -1.93%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 19:55
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.15%E -1.93%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 19:53
DraftKings🎯4.71I 21.23%NM 20.17%EV -9.92%E -2.11%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.83%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 14:45
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
BetRivers🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Bally Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 19:55
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.76%E -3.16%K -19.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 19:55
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -12.02%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.57%E -3.87%K -25.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 19:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.93%E -3.10%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 18:24
PMU (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.93%E -3.10%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.38%E -4.60%K -31.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 18:25
Caesars🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -19.67%E -4.68%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -2.95%E -2.46%K -14.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 13:37
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.89%1.22I 81.97%NM 82.11%-0.2%2026-09-03 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86%0.6%2026-09-03 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86%0.6%2026-09-03 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86%0.6%2026-09-03 22:50
Matchbook◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86%0.6%2026-09-03 22:45
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25%1.3%2026-09-03 22:50
Novig◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25%1.3%2026-09-03 22:55
Smarkets◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.27%1.19I 84.03%NM 82.73%1.6%2026-09-03 22:45