Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Andrey Rublev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 41.32%2.42fair odd
EV +1.24%
Edge +0.506%
Kelly +0.856%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%41.29%41.25%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.192.302.302.4545.66%43.41%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Andrey Rublev (Visit)
Prediction 58.68%1.70fair odd
EV +0.338%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.476%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%58.71%58.75%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.7163.69%61.89%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 41.32%; Andrey Rublev (Visit): 58.68%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.24%E +0.506%K +0.856%G +0.011% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.24%E +0.506%K +0.856%G +0.011% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -0.412%E -0.171%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -3.77%E -2.30%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.825%E -0.344%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.75%EV -2.07%E -0.871%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.25%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 14:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -7.29%E -4.61%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -3.77%E -2.30%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 14:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.29%E -4.61%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -3.30%E -1.41%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.72%E -1.60%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 12:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.78%E -2.54%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.61%E -2.93%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 14:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 12:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 14:46 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 11:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 13:07 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 13:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -8.26%E -3.72%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -8.26%E -3.72%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 10:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -9.50%E -4.34%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV +0.338%E +0.198%K +0.476%G +0.002% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 21:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.94% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Novig◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02% | 2.1% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |