The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Andrey Rublev

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Prediction 37.29%2.68fair odd
EV +4.41%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.45%
Growth +0.108%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%37.47%37.19%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.522.492.8044.44%39.65%40.16%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andrey Rublev (Visit)

Prediction 62.71%1.59fair odd
EV +4.73%
Edge +2.83%
Kelly +7.05%
Growth +0.333%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%62.53%62.81%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.511.501.6771.43%66.25%66.45%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 37.29%; Andrey Rublev (Visit): 62.71%. For Andrey Rublev (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.59. 12 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.67, producing a positive expected value of +4.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -16.10%E -7.16%K -12.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV +4.73%E +2.83%K +7.05%G +0.333%4.3%2026-09-01 04:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -16.10%E -7.16%K -12.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV +4.73%E +2.83%K +7.05%G +0.333%4.3%2026-09-01 00:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:40
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:40
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -16.84%E -7.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV +4.10%E +2.47%K +6.21%G +0.255%5.1%2026-09-01 00:45
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.18%EV -6.40%E -2.55%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.82%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 04:05
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 05:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 05:05
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 05:00
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 05:05
GTbets🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -2.67%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -3.43%E -2.22%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-01 05:05
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.05%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 05:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -7.52%E -3.03%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 21:20
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV +0.681%E +0.252%K +0.401%G +0.003%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-01 05:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 05:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -10.51%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -5.31%E -3.51%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 05:05
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -1.18%E -0.447%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 04:49
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.30%E -0.879%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-01 05:00
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.05%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 05:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.91%E -1.93%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 05:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.91%E -1.93%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 05:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.91%E -1.93%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 04:50
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 04:51
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.93%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 05:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.91%E -1.93%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 05:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:00
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.78%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:00
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -1.18%E -0.447%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 04:50
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 05:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.63%EV -9.76%E -4.03%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.37%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 05:00
ReBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.63%EV -9.76%E -4.03%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.37%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 05:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -10.51%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 05:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -14.23%E -6.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.17%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-01 05:00
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.55%E +0.926%K +1.45%G +0.037%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.70%E -6.73%K -22.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 04:51
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.55%E +0.926%K +1.45%G +0.037%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.70%E -6.73%K -22.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 04:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.55%E +0.926%K +1.45%G +0.037%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.70%E -6.73%K -22.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 04:50
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -1.18%E -0.447%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -9.70%E -6.73%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 05:00
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +4.41%E +1.58%K +2.45%G +0.108%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -10.95%E -7.71%K -26.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 04:50
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +4.41%E +1.58%K +2.45%G +0.108%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -12.21%E -8.72%K -30.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-09-01 05:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%4.9%2026-09-01 05:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%4.9%2026-09-01 05:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%4.9%2026-09-01 05:00
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%5.2%2026-09-01 05:00
Novig◎2.53I 39.53%NM 37.06%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.94%6.6%2026-09-01 04:50
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 40.64%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.36%10.8%2026-09-01 05:00
ProphetX◎2.21I 45.25%NM 39.45%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.55%14.7%2026-09-01 05:00
Arbitrage (25 combinations) +4.61%PlayUp 2.80 (37.4%) / BoyleSports 1.67 (62.6%)Show all 25 combinations
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)Andrey Rublev (Visit)Margin
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.4%)BoyleSports🎯 1.67 (62.6%)+4.61%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.4%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 1.67 (62.6%)+4.61%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.4%)BoyleSports🎯 1.67 (62.6%)+4.61%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.4%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 1.67 (62.6%)+4.61%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Virgin Bet🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)BetRivers🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Grosvenor🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)LiveScore Bet🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)TABtouch🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Casumo🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
PlayUp🎯 2.80 (37.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Virgin Bet🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)BetRivers🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Grosvenor🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)LiveScore Bet🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)TABtouch🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Casumo🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
TAB🎯 2.80 (37.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.8%)+4.22%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.8%)BoyleSports🎯 1.67 (62.2%)+3.90%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.8%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 1.67 (62.2%)+3.90%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.8%)BoyleSports🎯 1.67 (62.2%)+3.90%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.8%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 1.67 (62.2%)+3.90%
Mr Green (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.8%)BoyleSports🎯 1.67 (62.2%)+3.90%
Mr Green (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.8%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 1.67 (62.2%)+3.90%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Virgin Bet🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)BetRivers🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Grosvenor🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)LiveScore Bet🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)TABtouch🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Casumo🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport🎯 2.75 (37.6%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Virgin Bet🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)BetRivers🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Grosvenor🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)LiveScore Bet🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)TABtouch🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Casumo🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%
888sport (SE)🎯 2.75 (37.6%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.66 (62.4%)+3.51%

Showing 50 of 214 combinations