Idioma:Español
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Andrey Rublev
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Predicción 41.32%2.42momio equitativo
EV +1.24%
Ventaja +0.506%
Kelly +0.856%
Crecimiento +0.011%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.55%41.29%41.25%43.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.192.302.302.4545.66%43.41%43.48%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Andrey Rublev (Visitante)
Predicción 58.68%1.70momio equitativo
EV +0.338%
Ventaja +0.198%
Kelly +0.476%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.15%58.71%58.75%60.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.621.621.7163.69%61.89%61.73%58.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 41.32%; Andrey Rublev (Visitante): 58.68%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.42. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.45, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.24%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.24%E +0.506%K +0.856%G +0.011% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.24%E +0.506%K +0.856%G +0.011% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -0.412%E -0.171%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -3.77%E -2.30%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.825%E -0.344%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.65%E -0.694%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.75%EV -2.07%E -0.871%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.25%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 14:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -2.48%E -1.05%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -7.29%E -4.61%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -3.77%E -2.30%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 14:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.29%E -4.61%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -3.30%E -1.41%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.72%E -1.60%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 12:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.12%E -3.82%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.96%E -2.16%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.78%E -2.54%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.60%E -1.56%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.61%E -2.93%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 14:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.18%E -1.93%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 12:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 14:46 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 11:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 13:07 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.94%E -3.05%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 13:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.53%E -3.43%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 12:41 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.88%E -5.02%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -8.26%E -3.72%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -8.26%E -3.72%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -4.36%E -2.67%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 10:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -9.50%E -4.34%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV +0.338%E +0.198%K +0.476%G +0.002% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 21:19 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.94% | 0.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Novig◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02% | 2.1% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |