Language:English
Jacob Fearnley v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jacob Fearnley (Local)
Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV +4.94%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +0.106%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%31.79%31.82%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.993.003.3037.04%33.43%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 68.20%1.47fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -7.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%68.21%68.18%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.381.381.4279.37%72.72%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacob Fearnley (Local): 31.80%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 68.20%. For Jacob Fearnley (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +1.76%E +0.550%K +0.800%G +0.014% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +1.76%E +0.550%K +0.800%G +0.014% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV +0.171%E +0.054%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -12.02%E -9.32%K -41.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 22:02 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -14.07%E -11.17%K -54.11%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV -2.06%E -0.667%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 17:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -3.01%E -0.987%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:28 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 21:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 20:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.26%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.74%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 10:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.81%EV -5.24%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.19%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -5.55%E -1.87%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 10:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 21:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 11:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -8.61%E -6.43%K -25.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 14:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 09:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 09:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 09:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:53 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 1.7% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41% | 2.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |