Idioma:Español
Jacob Fearnley v Jakub Mensik
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Jacob Fearnley (Local)
Predicción 31.80%3.14momio equitativo
EV +4.94%
Ventaja +1.50%
Kelly +2.15%
Crecimiento +0.106%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.73%31.79%31.82%34.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.993.003.3037.04%33.43%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Jakub Mensik (Visitante)
Predicción 68.20%1.47momio equitativo
EV -3.16%
Ventaja -2.22%
Kelly -7.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.53%68.21%68.18%71.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.261.381.381.4279.37%72.72%72.46%70.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Jacob Fearnley (Local): 31.80%; Jakub Mensik (Visitante): 68.20%. Para Jacob Fearnley (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.14. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.94%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +1.76%E +0.550%K +0.800%G +0.014% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +1.76%E +0.550%K +0.800%G +0.014% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV +0.171%E +0.054%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -12.02%E -9.32%K -41.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 22:02 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -14.07%E -11.17%K -54.11%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV -2.06%E -0.667%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 17:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -3.01%E -0.987%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:28 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 21:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 20:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.26%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.74%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 10:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.81%EV -5.24%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.19%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -5.55%E -1.87%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 10:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 21:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 11:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -8.61%E -6.43%K -25.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 14:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 09:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 09:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 09:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:53 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 1.7% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41% | 2.2% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |