Idioma:Español
Jacob Fearnley v Jakub Mensik
Resultado del partido
Jacob Fearnley (Local)
Predicción 28.67%3.49momio equitativo
EV +1.51%
Ventaja +0.425%
Kelly +0.593%
Crecimiento +0.009%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.86%28.78%28.73%30.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.253.253.5432.79%30.77%30.77%28.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Jakub Mensik (Visitante)
Predicción 71.33%1.40momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -6.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.37
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.32%71.22%71.27%73.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.331.331.3777.52%75.43%75.19%72.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jacob Fearnley (Local): 28.67%; Jakub Mensik (Visitante): 71.33%. Para Jacob Fearnley (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.49. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.54, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.51%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%EV +1.51%E +0.425%K +0.593%G +0.009% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.14%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 01:39 |
| FanDuel | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.359%E +0.102%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.85%E -4.43%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.359%E +0.102%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Sky Bet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.359%E +0.102%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| Coolbet | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%EV -1.08%E -0.312%K -0.439%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -3.71%E -2.75%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-05 01:39 |
| 1xBet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.51%E -0.738%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.42%E -3.30%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 01:45 |
| Bovada | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.51%E -0.738%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 22:43 |
| GTbets | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.68%EV -3.37%E -1.000%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.32%EV -7.99%E -6.19%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 21:10 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -3.66%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.79%EV -5.85%E -4.43%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:45 |
| Betsson | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.94%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| NordicBet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.94%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| DraftKings | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -4.80%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -4.42%E -3.30%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 21:10 |
| Betway | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Fanatics | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.85%E -4.43%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 02:44 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.85%E -4.43%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 01:44 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.56%E -5.01%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| theScore Bet | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.56%E -5.01%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| betfred_uk | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| BetMGM | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Coral | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.14%E -3.86%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| betano_uk | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 01:43 |
| Bet Victor | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 01:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 01:34 |
| ReBet | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -9.68%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -6.56%E -5.01%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -9.68%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.28%E -5.60%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Dabble (AU) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -2.28%E -1.67%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| William Hill | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.00%E -2.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 20:34 |
| 888sport | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.00%E -2.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 20:35 |
| PlayUp | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.00%E -2.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 02:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.00%E -2.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.00%E -2.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| TAB | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.42%E -3.30%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 02:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.54%E -4.11%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.71%E -2.75%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Neds | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.54%E -4.11%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.71%E -2.75%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -12.54%E -4.11%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.28%EV -7.99%E -6.19%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-05 01:55 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -12.54%E -4.11%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.28%EV -7.99%E -6.19%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -15.41%E -5.22%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.74%EV -8.70%E -6.80%K -31.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58% | 3.5% | 2026-08-05 01:50 |
| Matchbook | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Novig | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.84% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 01:40 |
| Smarkets | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43% | 7.7% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43% | 7.7% | 2026-08-05 02:45 |