Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jacob Fearnley v Jakub Mensik

Início: 2026-08-05 22:08 UTC

Final: Jacob Fearnley 1–2 Jakub Mensik

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

65 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jacob Fearnley (Local)

Previsão 31.80%3.14odd justa
EV +4.94%
Vantagem +1.50%
Kelly +2.15%
Crescimento +0.106%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.73%31.79%31.82%34.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.702.993.003.3037.04%33.43%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jakub Mensik (Visitante)

Previsão 68.20%1.47odd justa
EV -3.16%
Vantagem -2.22%
Kelly -7.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.53%68.21%68.18%71.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.261.381.381.4279.37%72.72%72.46%70.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Jacob Fearnley (Local): 31.80%; Jakub Mensik (Visitante): 68.20%. Para Jacob Fearnley (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.14. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.94%.

Odds das casas de apostas (65 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 22:05
betPARX🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 22:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 22:05
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.94%E +1.50%K +2.15%G +0.106%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 22:05
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-05 22:05
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-05 22:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +1.76%E +0.550%K +0.800%G +0.014%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 22:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +1.76%E +0.550%K +0.800%G +0.014%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 22:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV +0.171%E +0.054%K +0.079%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -12.02%E -9.32%K -41.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 22:05
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 22:02
BetAnything🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 22:05
Bally Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 14:10
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.29%E -6.99%K -28.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-05 22:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -14.07%E -11.17%K -54.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-05 22:05
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV -2.06%E -0.667%K -0.988%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-05 19:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-05 20:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-05 20:30
SportsBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 17:00
DraftKings🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV -2.37%E -0.773%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 22:05
FanDuel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -3.01%E -0.987%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 10:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 13:45
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 22:05
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 22:04
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 10:28
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 10:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 10:30
ReBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 21:05
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 20:40
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 22:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 22:05
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 22:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 22:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 22:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 09:20
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 10:30
GTbets🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.26%EV -4.92%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.74%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.81%EV -5.24%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.19%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -5.55%E -1.87%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 21:50
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 22:00
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 22:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 10:29
Fanatics🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 21:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 19:39
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-05 22:05
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 10:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 21:35
Caesars🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 11:14
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 22:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 22:05
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -8.61%E -6.43%K -25.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-05 22:05
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 22:00
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-05 14:09
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-05 14:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-05 09:25
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-05 22:05
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 09:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 09:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 21:53
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 21:50
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 22:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%0.2%2026-08-05 22:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%0.2%2026-08-05 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%0.2%2026-08-05 22:05
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%0.2%2026-08-05 22:05
Novig◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%0.9%2026-08-05 22:05
ProphetX◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26%1.7%2026-08-05 22:05
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59%1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41%2.2%2026-08-05 22:05