Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Quentin Halys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 43.98%2.27fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.468%
Kelly -0.842%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.08%43.93%44.23%45.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.192.2548.78%45.94%45.66%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Quentin Halys (Visit)
Prediction 56.02%1.78fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.59%56.07%55.77%57.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.681.671.7561.73%59.62%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 43.98%; Quentin Halys (Visit): 56.02%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-30 11:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-30 11:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:28 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -5.32%E -3.15%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-30 11:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -5.32%E -3.15%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-30 11:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -8.68%E -5.33%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -8.68%E -5.33%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -9.24%E -5.70%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.37%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -2.37%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.52%E -1.45%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 11:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.13%E -1.90%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -1.96%E -1.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-30 11:28 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.52%E -1.45%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-30 11:28 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 11:28 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -5.89%E -2.75%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -6.33%E -2.97%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -7.21%E -3.42%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.64%E -2.12%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 11:28 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-30 11:28 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-30 11:22 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.53%E -4.10%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.85%E -4.80%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 0.5% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-30 11:29 |
| Novig◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39% | 1.9% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36% | 2.0% | 2026-06-30 11:30 |