La escuela de los momios

Matteo Arnaldi v Quentin Halys

Inicio: 2026-06-30 11:35 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Matteo Arnaldi (Local)

Predicción 43.98%2.27momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.468%
Kelly -0.842%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.08%43.93%44.23%45.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.182.192.2548.78%45.94%45.66%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Quentin Halys (Visitante)

Predicción 56.02%1.78momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -1.12%
Kelly -2.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.59%56.07%55.77%57.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.681.671.7561.73%59.62%59.88%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-30 11:24
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:24
Hard Rock Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 11:29
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Casumo2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
TABtouch2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:30
Grosvenor2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:30
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:30
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:28
Unibet (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Bally Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
betPARX2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.05%E -0.468%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -5.32%E -3.15%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-30 11:24
ReBet2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -5.32%E -3.15%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-30 11:24
Marathon Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -8.68%E -5.33%K -13.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:30
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -8.68%E -5.33%K -13.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 11:30
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -1.93%E -0.867%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -9.24%E -5.70%K -14.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 11:29
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.37%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-30 11:29
GTbets2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -2.37%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 11:29
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.52%E -1.45%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-30 11:30
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 11:29
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 11:29
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:29
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:30
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:25
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-30 11:29
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 11:30
BetMGM2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -4.13%E -1.90%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-30 11:29
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -1.96%E -1.12%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-30 11:28
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.52%E -1.45%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-30 11:28
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 11:28
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 11:29
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-30 11:29
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:30
MyBookie.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 11:30
Dabble (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-30 11:30
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 11:29
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 11:30
NetBet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 11:29
Fliff2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 11:29
FanDuel2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -5.89%E -2.75%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-30 11:29
BetUS2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -6.33%E -2.97%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 11:29
SportsBet2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -7.21%E -3.42%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-30 11:29
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:30
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:29
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 11:30
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.64%E -2.12%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 11:28
BetAnything2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 11:29
Caesars2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.20%E -2.46%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 11:28
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:30
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:29
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 11:30
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 11:29
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 11:22
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 11:30
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-30 11:30
DraftKings2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -8.53%E -4.10%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -3.08%E -1.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 11:30
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.85%E -4.80%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-30 11:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%0.2%2026-06-30 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-06-30 11:30
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-06-30 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-06-30 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-06-30 11:29
Novig2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%1.9%2026-06-30 11:30
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.0%2026-06-30 11:30