Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Adrian Mannarino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 71.41%1.40fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -5.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.34%71.43%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.331.3777.52%75.29%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adrian Mannarino (Visit)
Prediction 28.59%3.50fair odd
EV -0.797%
Edge -0.230%
Kelly -0.323%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.66%28.57%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.4733.33%30.46%30.30%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 71.41%; Adrian Mannarino (Visit): 28.59%. For Adrian Mannarino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.47, with an expected value of -0.797%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -2.17%E -1.58%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 23:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%EV -1.37%E -0.397%K -0.559%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-29 22:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 23:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.23%E -4.74%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.23%E -4.74%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -1.37%E -0.397%K -0.559%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 22:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:27 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 22:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-29 21:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:32 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 21:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 19:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 23:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.44%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.56%EV -0.797%E -0.230%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-29 23:38 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.45%E -4.92%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.45%E -4.92%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.17%E -5.51%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.17%E -5.51%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-29 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.17%E -5.51%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-29 19:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.88%E -6.11%K -27.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 13:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -7.88%E -6.11%K -27.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40% | 2.8% | 2026-07-29 23:35 |
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