Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Michelsen v Adrian Mannarino

2026-07-29 22:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Michelsen (Local)

Prediction 66.78%1.50fair odd

EV -3.83%

Edge -2.66%

Kelly -8.72%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.66%66.83%66.78%68.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.48%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adrian Mannarino (Visit)

Prediction 33.22%3.01fair odd

EV -1.01%

Edge -0.338%

Kelly -0.509%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.96%33.17%33.22%34.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.842.882.9838.46%35.18%34.72%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.83%E -2.66%K -8.72%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-28 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.01%E -0.680%K -1.03%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-28 22:00
Bovada	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.01%E -0.680%K -1.03%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-28 23:04
Fanatics	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-28 22:14
Winamax (DE)	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-28 22:14
Bet Right	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -3.00%E -1.03%K -1.56%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-28 23:24
FanDuel	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -3.00%E -1.03%K -1.56%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-28 22:14
NordicBet	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-28 22:15
Betsson	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-28 22:15
Betr (AU)	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-28 21:50
DraftKings	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -1.01%E -0.338%K -0.509%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-28 21:45
William Hill	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-28 21:45
888sport	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-28 21:44
888sport (SE)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-28 22:15
Mr Green (SE)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-28 22:15
betfred_uk	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.33%E -1.50%K -2.30%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-28 21:45
PointsBet (AU)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-28 22:14
Unibet (UK)	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.99%E -2.50%K -3.88%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-28 22:14
theScore Bet	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.99%E -2.50%K -3.88%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-28 22:14
Bet Victor	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.65%E -3.15%K -4.94%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-28 21:49
betano_uk	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.65%E -3.15%K -4.94%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-28 21:49
BoyleSports	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.27%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.65%E -3.15%K -4.94%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-29 00:04
ReBet	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.43%EV -7.17%E -5.16%K -18.39%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.65%E -3.15%K -4.94%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-28 22:15
SportsBet	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -7.84%E -5.68%K -20.64%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.32%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-28 22:15
Betclic (FR)	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -7.84%E -5.68%K -20.64%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -10.31%E -3.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-07-28 22:13
Winamax (FR)	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.92%EV -8.51%E -6.21%K -23.00%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.08%EV -11.97%E -4.52%K -7.25%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-28 22:14
Sky Bet	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.18%E -6.75%K -25.49%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.33%E -1.50%K -2.30%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-28 21:44
Paddy Power	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.18%E -6.75%K -25.49%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.33%E -1.50%K -2.30%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-28 21:44
Unibet (FR)	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.66%EV -9.18%E -6.75%K -25.49%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.34%EV -13.63%E -5.24%K -8.52%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-07-28 22:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.95%	2.99I 33.44%NM 32.05%	4.4%	2026-07-28 23:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.56%	2.66I 37.59%NM 35.44%	6.1%	2026-07-28 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.56%	2.66I 37.59%NM 35.44%	6.1%	2026-07-28 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.56%	2.66I 37.59%NM 35.44%	6.1%	2026-07-28 23:29
Smarkets	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.17%	2.68I 37.31%NM 33.83%	10.3%	2026-07-29 00:55
Matchbook	1.40I 71.43%NM 51.89%	1.51I 66.23%NM 48.11%	37.7%	2026-07-29 00:55
ProphetX	1.16I 86.21%NM 54.86%	1.41I 70.92%NM 45.14%	57.1%	2026-07-29 01:00