Idioma:Español
Alex Michelsen v Adrian Mannarino
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Predicción 71.41%1.40momio equitativo
EV -2.17%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -5.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.37
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.81%71.34%71.43%72.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.331.331.3777.52%75.29%75.19%72.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Adrian Mannarino (Visitante)
Predicción 28.59%3.50momio equitativo
EV -0.797%
Ventaja -0.230%
Kelly -0.323%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.47
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.51%28.66%28.57%31.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.283.303.4733.33%30.46%30.30%28.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alex Michelsen (Local): 71.41%; Adrian Mannarino (Visitante): 28.59%. Para Adrian Mannarino (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.50. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.47, con un valor esperado de -0.797%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -2.17%E -1.58%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 23:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%EV -1.37%E -0.397%K -0.559%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-29 22:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 23:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.23%E -4.74%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.88%E -2.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.23%E -4.74%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -1.37%E -0.397%K -0.559%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 22:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:27 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.31%E -3.22%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 22:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-29 21:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:32 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 21:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 19:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 23:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.02%E -3.78%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.38%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 22:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.44%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.56%EV -0.797%E -0.230%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-29 23:38 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.74%E -4.35%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.45%E -4.92%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.45%E -4.92%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.17%E -5.51%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.09%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 21:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.17%E -5.51%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-29 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.17%E -5.51%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.52%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-29 19:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.88%E -6.11%K -27.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -2.80%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 13:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -7.88%E -6.11%K -27.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-07-29 23:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40% | 2.8% | 2026-07-29 23:35 |