Language:English
Brandon Nakashima v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brandon Nakashima (Local)
Prediction 66.81%1.50fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.57%66.86%66.90%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.431.4673.53%70.34%69.93%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 33.19%3.01fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.398%
Kelly +0.592%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%33.14%33.10%34.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.872.853.0536.36%34.87%35.09%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brandon Nakashima (Local): 66.81%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 33.19%. For Alex Michelsen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -7.13%E -5.13%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV +1.21%E +0.398%K +0.592%G +0.007% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -7.13%E -5.13%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV +0.883%E +0.290%K +0.433%G +0.004% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 14:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 14:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.79%E -4.11%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 14:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.13%E -6.71%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -0.445%E -0.148%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.34%EV -3.12%E -2.15%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.66%EV -0.777%E -0.260%K -0.390%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-02 14:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -1.11%E -0.372%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 14:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -7.13%E -5.13%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -1.44%E -0.485%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -3.12%E -2.15%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -2.10%E -0.713%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-02 14:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -2.10%E -0.713%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 14:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.10%E -0.713%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 14:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -3.10%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 14:46 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.59%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV -3.10%E -1.06%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -3.12%E -2.15%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 14:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.43%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 14:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.44%EV -3.12%E -2.15%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.56%EV -4.76%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 13:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -4.76%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -4.76%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.79%E -4.11%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 13:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.28%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.72%EV -6.09%E -2.15%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -6.42%E -2.28%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 11:03 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-02 14:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-02 12:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 14:46 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.57%EV -2.45%E -1.68%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.43%EV -7.75%E -2.79%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -8.41%E -3.05%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -8.41%E -3.05%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 10:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 06:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 06:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.79%E -2.63%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 11:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.45%E -3.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 10:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.12%E -3.61%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-02 13:56 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.46%E -4.61%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 14:51 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 14:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.16% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.84% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-09-02 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 12:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 2.3% | 2026-09-02 14:15 |