Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brandon Nakashima v Alex Michelsen

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brandon Nakashima (Local)

Prediction 58.57%1.71fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.38%58.56%58.67%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.611.6764.10%62.18%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alex Michelsen (Visit)

Prediction 41.43%2.41fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.44%41.33%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.3547.62%43.82%43.48%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Brandon Nakashima (Local): 58.57%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 41.43%. For Brandon Nakashima (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.67, with an expected value of -2.19%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.19%E -1.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-01 01:09
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.36%E -2.04%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.64%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-31 23:10
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.36%E -2.04%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-31 21:40
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -3.95%E -2.41%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 01:50
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -4.53%E -2.78%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -3.47%E -1.49%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 04:05
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 23:45
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 04:20
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 21:40
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 21:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 23:15
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 01:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 04:05
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.64%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-31 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 23:00
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 23:05
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 23:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 00:45
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.70%E -3.54%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 02:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 02:45
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.54%E -2.43%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 00:20
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 01:50
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 00:03
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -7.19%E -3.21%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 23:09
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 23:00
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.88%E -4.32%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 03:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.05%E -5.13%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.64%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 23:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.05%E -5.13%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.05%E -5.13%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 23:09
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.05%E -5.13%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 23:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.63%E -5.53%K -15.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-01 00:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.38%EV -8.63%E -5.53%K -15.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.99%E -6.19%K -11.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-01 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-09-01 04:40
Novig1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%3.7%2026-09-01 02:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%4.0%2026-09-01 04:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%4.0%2026-09-01 05:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%4.0%2026-09-01 04:55
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%6.4%2026-09-01 04:55
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 58.92%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.08%11.7%2026-09-01 05:00
Smarkets1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%12.6%2026-08-31 23:10