Language:English
Alejandro Tabilo v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Prediction 32.68%3.06fair odd
EV +0.643%
Edge +0.209%
Kelly +0.309%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.79%32.70%32.56%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.883.0837.04%34.73%34.72%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 67.32%1.49fair odd
EV +0.312%
Edge +0.209%
Kelly +0.637%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%67.30%67.44%69.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.401.4974.07%71.07%71.43%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 32.68%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 67.32%. For Alejandro Tabilo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.643%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%EV +0.643%E +0.209%K +0.309%G +0.002% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -7.77%E -5.67%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV +0.317%E +0.103%K +0.153%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -7.77%E -5.67%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.97%E -0.657%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.97%E -0.657%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.43%EV -2.62%E -0.881%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.57%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-14 08:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%EV -3.28%E -1.11%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.73%EV -5.07%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -9.11%E -6.75%K -26.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -3.93%E -1.34%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -4.26%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -5.07%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -4.58%E -1.57%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -7.77%E -5.67%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.86%EV -4.91%E -1.69%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.14%EV +0.312%E +0.209%K +0.637%G +0.002% | 1.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.44%E -6.21%K -23.44%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.89%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.44%E -6.21%K -23.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -6.22%E -2.17%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -6.22%E -2.17%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -7.20%E -2.53%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -7.20%E -2.53%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 08:58 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.51%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.05%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-14 08:58 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-14 08:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -7.09%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 1.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.73% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.27% | 3.2% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72% | 3.3% | 2026-04-14 09:00 |