Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Bublik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 87.56%1.14fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -25.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.53%87.54%87.57%90.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.071.071.1196.15%93.07%93.46%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Bublik (Visit)
Prediction 12.44%8.04fair odd
EV +19.39%
Edge +2.02%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.437%
assuming max odds 9.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.94%12.46%12.43%14.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.948.009.6015.38%12.60%12.50%10.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 87.56%; Alexander Bublik (Visit): 12.44%. For Alexander Bublik (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.04. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.06%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.94%EV +19.39%E +2.02%K +2.25%G +0.437% | 4.8% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -8.06%E -7.67%K -161.17%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +18.15%E +1.91%K +2.14%G +0.387% | 5.8% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +11.93%E +1.33%K +1.49%G +0.178% | 5.5% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.87%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 11.13%EV +8.20%E +0.942%K +1.06%G +0.087% | 3.2% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -8.06%E -7.67%K -161.17%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +5.71%E +0.672%K +0.761%G +0.043% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.50%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 8.16I 12.25%NM 11.50%EV +1.48%E +0.182%K +0.207%G +0.003% | 6.6% | 2026-04-10 14:03 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.13%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 8.09I 12.36%NM 11.87%EV +0.612%E +0.076%K +0.086%G +0.001% | 4.1% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.13%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 8.09I 12.36%NM 11.87%EV +0.612%E +0.076%K +0.086%G +0.001% | 4.1% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.12%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 8.01I 12.48%NM 11.88%EV -0.383%E -0.048%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -3.68%E -3.35%K -36.80%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 14:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 13:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 14:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -0.507%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.43%EV -8.93%E -8.59%K -223.35%G +0.000% | 7.95I 12.58%NM 11.57%EV -1.13%E -0.142%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.68%EV -2.80%E -2.53%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.32%EV -1.75%E -0.222%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-10 14:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV -3.62%E -0.467%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV -3.62%E -0.467%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -3.62%E -0.467%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.18%E -6.78%K -119.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.73%E -0.897%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -9.83%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -9.83%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-10 14:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV -6.31%E -5.89%K -90.10%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -9.83%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.96%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.04%EV -10.46%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-10 13:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.68%E -3.35%K -36.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -12.94%E -1.85%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 13:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.68%E -3.35%K -36.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -19.16%E -2.95%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -19.16%E -2.95%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 13:47 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -19.16%E -2.95%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 14:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.43%E -5.03%K -67.89%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -19.16%E -2.95%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 13:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.83% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 0.3% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.30% | 9.26I 10.80%NM 10.70% | 0.9% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 89.72% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.28% | 1.3% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 89.11% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.89% | 2.0% | 2026-04-10 14:05 |