Language:English
Marco Trungelliti v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marco Trungelliti (Local)
Prediction 42.92%2.33fair odd
EV +0.859%
Edge +0.365%
Kelly +0.636%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%43.02%43.08%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.222.252.3549.50%45.09%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit)
Prediction 57.08%1.75fair odd
EV +3.89%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +4.74%
Growth +0.184%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%56.98%56.92%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.651.651.8263.29%60.43%60.61%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 42.92%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit): 57.08%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -13.30%E -6.59%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +3.89%E +2.14%K +4.74%G +0.184% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.25%E -0.722%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.82%E -1.06%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.82%E -1.06%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.82%E -1.06%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.39%E -1.40%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 12:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -12.02%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 15:28 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.53%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -3.53%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.10%E -2.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.87%E -3.16%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.10%E -2.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 15:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.10%E -2.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 09:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +0.859%E +0.365%K +0.636%G +0.005% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.72%E -2.13%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 13:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 13:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.96%E -4.27%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 10:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 10:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 10:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 10:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.67%E -5.42%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -9.81%E -6.21%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -9.81%E -6.21%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |