La scuola delle quoteLingua:Italiano
Marco Trungelliti v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →
Testa a testa
Marco Trungelliti (Casa)
Previsione 42.92%2.33quota equa
EV +0.859%
Vantaggio +0.365%
Kelly +0.636%
Crescita +0.005%
ipotizzando la quota massima 2.35
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
41.18%43.02%43.08%47.40%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.022.222.252.3549.50%45.09%44.44%42.55%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta)
Previsione 57.08%1.75quota equa
EV +3.89%
Vantaggio +2.14%
Kelly +4.74%
Crescita +0.184%
ipotizzando la quota massima 1.82
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
52.60%56.98%56.92%58.82%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.581.651.651.8263.29%60.43%60.61%54.95%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Quote dei bookmaker (57 bookmaker)
Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta ▼ | Margine | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -13.30%E -6.59%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +3.89%E +2.14%K +4.74%G +0.184% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.25%E -0.722%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Betsson | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.82%E -1.06%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| NordicBet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.82%E -1.06%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.82%E -1.06%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.39%E -1.40%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:30 |
| FanDuel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 12:59 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -12.02%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 15:28 |
| Fanatics | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.53%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| SportsBet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -3.53%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 13:00 |
| Coolbet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.10%E -2.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.87%E -3.16%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.10%E -2.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 15:53 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.10%E -2.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| theScore Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| BetUS | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Bet Victor | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 09:34 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.67%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +0.859%E +0.365%K +0.636%G +0.005% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| GTbets | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:45 |
| Bet Right | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.72%E -2.13%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.24%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betway | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| PlayUp | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:39 |
| BetMGM | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 13:55 |
| Coral | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.82%E -3.52%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 13:55 |
| TABtouch | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Unibet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Casumo | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Grosvenor | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| BetRivers | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| betPARX | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Bally Bet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.39%E -3.89%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| DraftKings | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.96%E -4.27%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| William Hill | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 10:19 |
| Caesars | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| TAB | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| 888sport | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 10:35 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 10:34 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.29%E -0.560%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 10:35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.29%E -1.92%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -8.10%E -5.03%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:49 |
| Everygame | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.67%E -5.42%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -9.81%E -6.21%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Neds | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -9.81%E -6.21%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale
Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.
Borse di scommesse (5)
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta | Margine ▲ | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Matchbook | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 15:45 |
| Smarkets | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 15:55 |