Language:English
Roman Andres Burruchaga v Mattia Bellucci
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local)
Prediction 69.08%1.45fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.51%69.01%69.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.381.4275.76%72.30%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mattia Bellucci (Visit)
Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd
EV +2.03%
Edge +0.614%
Kelly +0.880%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.99%30.81%33.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.3035.71%33.33%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local): 69.08%; Mattia Bellucci (Visit): 30.92%. For Mattia Bellucci (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV +2.03%E +0.614%K +0.880%G +0.018% | 2.8% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -8.81%E -6.67%K -27.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +2.03%E +0.614%K +0.880%G +0.018% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 11:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.479%E +0.147%K +0.213%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +0.479%E +0.147%K +0.213%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -1.07%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.07%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.12%E -6.10%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.07%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-07 11:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 11:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 11:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.43%E -5.54%K -21.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%EV -4.78%E -1.55%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%EV -5.39%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 11:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.70%E -1.87%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -6.32%E -2.09%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -6.32%E -2.09%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -6.63%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 11:06 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 11:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 11:06 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 11:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 11:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.05%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.95%EV -8.49%E -2.87%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 11:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.80%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 11:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 11:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 10:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -2.59%E -1.84%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -13.43%E -4.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.43%E -4.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.43%E -4.80%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 11:07 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.58% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.42% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 11:55 |