L’École des cotes

Roman Andres Burruchaga v Mattia Bellucci

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local)

Prévision 69.08%1.45cote équitable
EV -1.90%
Avantage -1.34%
Kelly -4.53%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.51%69.01%69.19%71.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.321.381.381.4275.76%72.30%72.46%70.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Mattia Bellucci (Visiteur)

Prévision 30.92%3.23cote équitable
EV +2.03%
Avantage +0.614%
Kelly +0.880%
Croissance +0.018%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.57%30.99%30.81%33.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.003.003.3035.71%33.33%33.33%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV +2.03%E +0.614%K +0.880%G +0.018%2.8%2026-05-07 11:55
Unibet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -8.81%E -6.67%K -27.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +2.03%E +0.614%K +0.880%G +0.018%6.1%2026-05-07 11:54
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.479%E +0.147%K +0.213%G +0.001%4.3%2026-05-07 11:55
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +0.479%E +0.147%K +0.213%G +0.001%4.8%2026-05-07 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -1.07%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-07 11:55
Betway1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.07%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:10
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.12%E -6.10%K -24.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.07%E -0.333%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 11:55
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-07 11:45
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 11:10
Betsson1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:55
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:55
Winamax (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:55
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:55
ReBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:55
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:55
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:49
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.43%E -5.54%K -21.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -4.16%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 11:55
Marathon Bet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%EV -4.78%E -1.55%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:55
DraftKings1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%EV -5.39%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-07 11:45
Codere (IT)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.70%E -1.87%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 11:55
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -6.32%E -2.09%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-07 11:55
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -6.32%E -2.09%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-07 11:55
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -6.63%E -2.20%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:55
Bet Right1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 11:55
PlayUp1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:55
theScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:06
Betr (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 11:09
PointsBet (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 11:06
Coral1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:55
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:50
GTbets1.39I 71.94%NM 68.05%EV -3.97%E -2.86%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.95%EV -8.49%E -2.87%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 11:45
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.80%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 11:54
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 11:55
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 11:55
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 11:55
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 11:55
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 11:55
Caesars1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 11:09
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.34%E -3.57%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 11:55
BetRivers1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Unibet (NL)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Casumo1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
TABtouch1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Grosvenor1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Unibet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Unibet (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
LeoVegas (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
betPARX1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Svenska Spel1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -1.90%E -1.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.96%E -3.81%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 10:59
PMU (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -2.59%E -1.84%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -13.43%E -4.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 11:07
Virgin Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.43%E -4.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 11:07
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.28%E -2.35%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.43%E -4.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 11:07
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-05-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-05-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-05-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-05-07 11:55
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%2.7%2026-05-07 11:55
Novig1.39I 71.94%NM 69.58%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.42%3.4%2026-05-07 11:55