Language:English
Nuno Borges v Rafael Jodar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 21.97%4.55fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +0.917%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.90%22.00%21.98%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.224.204.7526.32%23.70%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rafael Jodar (Visit)
Prediction 78.03%1.28fair odd
EV -0.122%
Edge -0.095%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.25%78.00%78.02%80.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2885.47%81.82%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 21.97%; Rafael Jodar (Visit): 78.03%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.36%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +4.36%E +0.917%K +1.16%G +0.051% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -7.14%E -6.00%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 08:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +4.36%E +0.917%K +1.16%G +0.051% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -7.92%E -6.72%K -44.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.74%EV +3.26%E +0.693%K +0.881%G +0.029% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.26%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.58%EV +1.72%E +0.372%K +0.474%G +0.008% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.03%EV +0.623%E +0.136%K +0.174%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.97%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-08 08:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.03%EV +0.623%E +0.136%K +0.174%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.97%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-08 08:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-08 08:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.70%E -7.44%K -51.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.58%E -4.61%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -8.70%E -7.44%K -51.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -4.43%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -4.65%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -4.87%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.58%E -4.61%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.92%E -6.72%K -44.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64%EV -0.122%E -0.095%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-08 02:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 06:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-08 08:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.22%E -3.35%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.22%E -3.35%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.22%E -3.35%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -15.42%E -4.00%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.39%EV -7.14%E -6.00%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -16.51%E -4.35%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 09:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Novig◎ | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.78% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.22% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 08:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |