La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Nuno Borges v Rafael Jodar
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Nuno Borges (Local)
Predicción 21.97%4.55momio equitativo
EV +4.36%
Ventaja +0.917%
Kelly +1.16%
Crecimiento +0.051%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.90%22.00%21.98%24.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.804.224.204.7526.32%23.70%23.81%21.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Rafael Jodar (Visitante)
Predicción 78.03%1.28momio equitativo
EV -0.122%
Ventaja -0.095%
Kelly -0.435%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.28
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.25%78.00%78.02%80.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.171.221.221.2885.47%81.82%81.97%78.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +4.36%E +0.917%K +1.16%G +0.051% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -7.14%E -6.00%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 08:54 |
| SportsBet | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +4.36%E +0.917%K +1.16%G +0.051% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -7.92%E -6.72%K -44.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Pinnacle | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.74%EV +3.26%E +0.693%K +0.881%G +0.029% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.26%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| DraftKings | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.58%EV +1.72%E +0.372%K +0.474%G +0.008% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| LowVig.ag | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.03%EV +0.623%E +0.136%K +0.174%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.97%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-08 08:35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.03%EV +0.623%E +0.136%K +0.174%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.97%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-08 08:35 |
| Coolbet | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-08 08:04 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Betway | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Paddy Power | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.70%E -7.44%K -51.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.58%E -4.61%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -8.70%E -7.44%K -51.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Fanatics | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -4.43%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| 1xBet | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -4.65%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| BoyleSports | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -4.87%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Bet Right | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| ReBet | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Betsson | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| NordicBet | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Betr (AU) | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.58%E -4.61%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| NetBet (FR) | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 08:55 |
| Everygame | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.92%E -6.72%K -44.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| GTbets | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64%EV -0.122%E -0.095%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-08 02:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:09 |
| PlayUp | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| 888sport | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| William Hill | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:25 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| 888sport (SE) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.73%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Casumo | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| Grosvenor | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| BetRivers | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| LeoVegas | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| Unibet | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| TABtouch | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Bally Bet | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:14 |
| betPARX | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| theScore Bet | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 06:10 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 08:05 |
| BetMGM | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| BetUS | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 20:05 |
| TAB | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| Neds | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:49 |
| Coral | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:50 |
| Bet Victor | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-08 08:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.22%E -3.35%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.22%E -3.35%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:19 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.22%E -3.35%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -15.42%E -4.00%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.39%EV -7.14%E -6.00%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Caesars | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -16.51%E -4.35%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 09:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Matchbook | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |
| Novig | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.78% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.22% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 08:50 |
| Smarkets | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 08:45 |