Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Raphael Collignon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 56.84%1.76fair odd
EV +0.606%
Edge +0.342%
Kelly +0.787%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%56.52%56.99%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.681.7762.50%59.30%59.52%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raphael Collignon (Visit)
Prediction 43.16%2.32fair odd
EV -0.299%
Edge -0.129%
Kelly -0.228%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%43.48%43.01%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.132.3150.00%46.66%46.84%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 56.84%; Raphael Collignon (Visit): 43.16%. For Joao Fonseca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.606%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +0.606%E +0.342%K +0.787%G +0.005% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -13.68%E -6.84%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 02:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV +0.037%E +0.021%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 02:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.531%E -0.303%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -11.52%E -5.62%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.36%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -13.68%E -6.84%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -13.68%E -6.84%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -1.67%E -0.964%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -13.68%E -6.84%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.24%E -1.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.80%E -1.64%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.36%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.80%E -1.64%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.36%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -2.89%E -1.28%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.36%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 02:52 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.36%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.52%E -5.62%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.52%E -5.62%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -4.51%E -2.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -0.299%E -0.129%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-05 02:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -4.51%E -2.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -8.50%E -4.01%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -4.51%E -2.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -11.09%E -5.38%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.731%E -0.318%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.731%E -0.318%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 02:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -3.75%E -1.68%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 02:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.62%E -2.09%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 02:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.36%E -4.46%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 02:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.99%EV -5.08%E -3.04%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.01%EV -11.95%E -5.86%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.65%E -3.40%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.65%E -3.40%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.731%E -0.318%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 02:48 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -2.46%E -1.09%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 02:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.89%E -1.28%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -6.21%E -3.77%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -11.52%E -5.62%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -7.35%E -4.51%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -6.34%E -2.92%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 02:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.92%E -4.89%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.20%E -3.35%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.49%E -5.27%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 02:51 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.06%E -5.66%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 1.6% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79% | 2.3% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79% | 2.3% | 2026-03-05 02:55 |