Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 81.28%1.23fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -7.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.13%81.19%81.17%83.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.181.2188.50%85.33%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 18.72%5.34fair odd
EV +10.43%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.222%
assuming max odds 5.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.43%18.81%18.83%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.255.005.005.9023.53%19.99%20.00%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 81.28%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 18.72%. For Daniil Medvedev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.43%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.57%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.43%EV +10.43%E +1.77%K +2.13%G +0.222% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +7.62%E +1.33%K +1.60%G +0.122% | 3.6% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +7.62%E +1.33%K +1.60%G +0.122% | 3.6% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.41%EV +3.88%E +0.699%K +0.852%G +0.033% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +2.94%E +0.535%K +0.654%G +0.019% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 22:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.34%E -6.44%K -52.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.94%E +0.535%K +0.654%G +0.019% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.34%E -6.44%K -52.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.94%E +0.535%K +0.654%G +0.019% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -7.34%E -6.44%K -52.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +1.07%E +0.198%K +0.243%G +0.003% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -7.34%E -6.44%K -52.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +1.07%E +0.198%K +0.243%G +0.003% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.34%E -6.44%K -52.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -1.74%E -0.331%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.31%EV -2.46%E -2.05%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.22I 19.16%NM 18.69%EV -2.30%E -0.440%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -2.67%E -0.514%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -2.67%E -0.514%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.40%EV -2.86%E -0.551%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.54%E -0.891%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 22:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.72%EV -8.15%E -7.21%K -62.69%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.28%EV -5.48%E -1.09%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.72%EV -8.15%E -7.21%K -62.69%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.28%EV -5.48%E -1.09%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.27%E -2.75%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 22:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.27%E -2.75%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:17 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 21:58 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 22:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.34%E -6.44%K -52.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.42%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.71%E -4.92%K -35.70%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -8.29%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.16%E -2.12%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.10%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.10%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.46%E -2.05%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -13.90%E -3.02%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.27%E -2.75%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -13.90%E -3.02%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 22:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -15.77%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -15.77%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.90%E -4.19%K -28.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.77%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 22:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -1.65%E -1.36%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -17.65%E -4.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 22:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -17.65%E -4.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.09%E -3.46%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -17.65%E -4.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -3.27%E -2.75%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -20.45%E -4.81%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -3.27%E -2.75%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -20.45%E -4.81%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.98% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 1.3% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.93% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 18.07% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |