Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Raphael Collignon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 32.53%3.07fair odd
EV +0.846%
Edge +0.273%
Kelly +0.403%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%32.62%32.53%35.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.872.873.1037.74%34.85%34.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raphael Collignon (Visit)
Prediction 67.47%1.48fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.63%67.38%67.47%70.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.421.421.4675.76%70.45%70.42%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 32.53%; Raphael Collignon (Visit): 67.47%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.846%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.846%E +0.273%K +0.403%G +0.003% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.24%E -6.06%K -22.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.846%E +0.273%K +0.403%G +0.003% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.24%E -6.06%K -22.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV +0.846%E +0.273%K +0.403%G +0.003% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -10.94%E -8.29%K -34.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -0.130%E -0.042%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-30 14:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -0.781%E -0.256%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -3.52%E -2.46%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.781%E -0.256%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-30 14:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -0.781%E -0.256%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -6.22%E -4.47%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.41%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.52%E -2.46%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.41%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.41%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.41%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -2.41%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.57%E -5.52%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.41%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.24%E -6.06%K -22.89%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.03%E -1.37%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.03%E -1.37%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 14:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.03%E -1.37%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 14:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -4.36%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.01%E -1.72%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.87%E -3.45%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV -5.01%E -1.72%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.59%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.87%E -3.45%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.87%E -3.45%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.87%E -3.45%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.66%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.31%E -2.19%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -6.64%E -2.31%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.96%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.52%E -2.46%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.22%E -4.47%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -7.94%E -2.80%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -3.52%E -2.46%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.65%EV -8.26%E -2.93%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.35%EV -3.52%E -2.46%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.91%E -3.18%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.19%E -2.95%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.91%E -3.18%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -9.89%E -3.57%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -1.50%E -1.02%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.50%E -1.02%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -1.50%E -1.02%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.54%E -3.96%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -13.79%E -5.20%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -2.17%E -1.50%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-30 14:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Novig◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.52% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.48% | 1.5% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 2.7% | 2026-05-30 14:50 |