Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Denis Shapovalov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 68.69%1.46fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -7.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%68.63%68.69%70.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.381.4175.76%72.78%72.73%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visit)
Prediction 31.31%3.19fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.435%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%31.37%31.31%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.003.1536.36%33.15%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 68.69%; Denis Shapovalov (Visit): 31.31%. For Denis Shapovalov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%EV -2.31%E -0.740%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-15 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -5.13%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -5.13%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -1.37%E -0.435%K -0.637%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 22:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-15 07:08 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 13:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 21:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 11:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.50%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 10:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.50%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 20:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.67%EV -2.31%E -0.740%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-15 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 22:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 21:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 22:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 21:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 09:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.43%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.57%EV -7.01%E -2.36%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 08:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 08:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 21:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 22:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.82%E -3.41%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 01:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.82%E -3.41%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 01:03 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.55%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -4.19%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 22:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -9.33%E -7.07%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 0.2% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 30.21% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 22:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26% | 1.7% | 2026-08-15 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.2% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |