Idioma:Español
Rafael Jodar v Denis Shapovalov
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Predicción 68.69%1.46momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -2.23%
Kelly -7.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.41
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.27%68.63%68.69%70.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.371.381.4175.76%72.78%72.73%70.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visitante)
Predicción 31.31%3.19momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.435%
Kelly -0.637%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.86%31.37%31.31%33.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.023.003.1536.36%33.15%33.33%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Rafael Jodar (Local): 68.69%; Denis Shapovalov (Visitante): 31.31%. Para Denis Shapovalov (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.19. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.15, con un valor esperado de -1.37%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%EV -2.31%E -0.740%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-15 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -5.13%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -5.13%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -1.37%E -0.435%K -0.637%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 22:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-15 07:08 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 13:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 06:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 21:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 11:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.50%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 10:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.50%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 20:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.52%E -3.25%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 10:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.67%EV -2.31%E -0.740%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-15 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 22:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 21:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 22:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 21:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 09:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.43%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.57%EV -7.01%E -2.36%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 08:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 08:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 21:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 22:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.82%E -3.41%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 01:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.82%E -3.41%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 01:03 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.55%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -4.19%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 22:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -9.33%E -7.07%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -2.93%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 0.2% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 30.21% | 0.9% | 2026-08-15 22:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26% | 1.7% | 2026-08-15 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.2% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |