The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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CF Estrela v Braga

2026-09-10 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.02%23.79%23.78%24.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.884.0427.78%25.88%25.81%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 48.98%2.04fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.02%48.98%49.00%50.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.891.901.9556.18%53.00%52.63%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.25%3.67fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%27.23%27.22%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.403.5031.25%29.74%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: CF Estrela (Local): 23.76%; Braga (Visit): 48.98%; Draw: 27.25%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.04, with an expected value of -4.00%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.51%EV -4.00%E -0.989%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.20%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.29%EV -5.16%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-05 23:05
GTbets🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.35%EV -4.00%E -0.989%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.39%EV -6.44%E -3.37%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.26%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.48%E -2.30%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Bally Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.95%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.91%E -4.21%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:25
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.91%E -4.21%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -11.34%E -6.26%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-05 23:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -4.48%E -2.30%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-05 23:04
BetOnline.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.71%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 00:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.46%E -2.83%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.71%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 00:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.44%E -3.37%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -8.40%E -4.49%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -8.51%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -6.44%E -3.37%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -8.51%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.99%EV -7.91%E -4.21%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-05 23:25
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -8.40%E -4.49%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -8.40%E -4.49%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -8.40%E -4.49%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 00:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.38%E -5.07%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.38%E -5.07%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.70%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.38%E -5.07%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 00:35
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -6.44%E -3.37%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 00:55
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Victor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 01:00
betano_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.93%E -3.65%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 01:04
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.38%E -5.07%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.38%E -5.07%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.38%E -5.07%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -10.89%E -2.90%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.24%EV -12.81%E -7.20%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.39%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -12.07%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -10.85%E -5.96%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -8.71%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%EV -13.26%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.05%EV -11.83%E -6.57%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.76%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -10.36%E -5.66%K -12.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.52%9.1%2026-09-06 01:20
Smarkets◎3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%13.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 36.03%1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%75.7%2026-09-05 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 36.03%1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%75.7%2026-09-05 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 36.03%1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%75.7%2026-09-05 23:25