Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-09-10 19:15 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 2–1 Braga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 19.43%5.15fair odd
EV +2.96%
Edge +0.559%
Kelly +0.688%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.65%19.38%19.44%20.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.714.755.3022.99%21.23%21.05%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 55.38%1.81fair odd
EV -0.310%
Edge -0.172%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.66%55.33%55.44%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.701.8063.29%59.02%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%25.29%25.13%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.603.603.8029.85%27.76%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 19.43%; Braga (Visit): 55.38%; Draw: 25.19%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV +2.96%E +0.559%K +0.688%G +0.020%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.74%EV -10.28%E -6.35%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:06
FanDuel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -0.925%E -0.181%K -0.226%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.49%EV -10.83%E -6.73%K -17.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 14:39
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 16:41
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 16:30
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -8.06%E -4.86%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 14:40
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -8.62%E -5.22%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 14:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -6.96%E -4.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.47%EV -7.80%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:40
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -13.09%E -3.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 07:00
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -13.09%E -3.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 06:59
Pinnacle🎯4.89I 20.45%NM 19.42%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.05%EV -4.53%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 13:15
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 18.89%EV -5.78%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.21%EV -9.73%E -5.97%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.90%EV -7.30%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:31
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -4.19%E -2.42%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -4.19%E -2.42%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 08:35
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 13:10
BetUS🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 13:15
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 09:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 08:35
Neds🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 08:35
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 16:01
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -6.96%E -4.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 15:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 14:36
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:26
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:26
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:26
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:40
Bet Victor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -8.62%E -5.22%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 12:30
betano_uk🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -8.62%E -5.22%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 12:28
Unibet (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.45%EV -12.49%E -7.91%K -21.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 16:25
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.24%EV -6.40%E -3.79%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -6.40%E -3.79%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -6.40%E -3.79%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:25
NetBet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -9.73%E -5.97%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 16:06
GTbets🎯4.61I 21.69%NM 20.73%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.09%EV -0.310%E -0.172%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.18%EV -8.06%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 02:00
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:20
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:21
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:21
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:21
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:20
Bally Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:20
BetMGM🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:35
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 14:36
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.28%E -6.35%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 16:25
BetRivers🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:20
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:21
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:26
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:20
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:26
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.11%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.31%EV -11.39%E -7.12%K -18.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -15.49%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 17:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -15.49%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 17:21
LiveScore Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -15.49%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 17:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎5.50I 18.18%NM 18.07%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-09-09 17:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-09-09 17:00
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.79%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-09-09 17:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.62%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-09-09 17:31
Smarkets◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.50%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%2.0%2026-09-09 16:51