Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

CF Estrela v Braga

2026-09-10 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Résultat du match

41 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prévision 23.80%4.20cote équitable
EV -3.86%
Avantage -0.955%
Kelly -1.27%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.04

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.02%23.80%23.81%24.54%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.603.863.854.0427.78%25.90%25.97%24.75%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Braga (Visiteur)

Prévision 48.93%2.04cote équitable
EV -4.58%
Avantage -2.35%
Kelly -4.82%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.93%48.95%48.94%50.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.781.891.901.9556.18%53.03%52.63%51.28%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 27.27%3.67cote équitable
EV -4.56%
Avantage -1.30%
Kelly -1.82%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.53%27.26%27.25%27.91%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.203.363.403.5031.25%29.77%29.41%28.57%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : CF Estrela (Local) : 23.80% ; Braga (Visiteur) : 48.93% ; Match nul : 27.27%. Pour CF Estrela (Local), cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 4.20. Aucun opérateur admissible ne propose de cote supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure cote disponible est 4.04, pour une espérance de -3.86% ; elle ne produit pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (41 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.51%EV -3.86%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.20%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.29%EV -5.11%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-05 23:05
GTbets🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.35%EV -3.86%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.39%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.26%EV -5.65%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Bally Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -8.00%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:25
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -8.00%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -11.43%E -6.31%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-05 23:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -4.58%E -2.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-05 23:04
BetOnline.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 00:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 00:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -8.49%E -4.54%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -6.54%E -3.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.99%EV -8.00%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-05 23:25
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.84%EV -8.00%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 01:40
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -8.49%E -4.54%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -8.49%E -4.54%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -8.49%E -4.54%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 00:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 00:35
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Victor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 01:00
betano_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.03%E -3.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 02:09
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.47%E -5.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.24%EV -12.90%E -7.25%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.39%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-05 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.95%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.93%EV -8.00%E -4.26%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 01:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -11.95%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -10.94%E -6.01%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%EV -13.14%E -3.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.05%EV -11.92%E -6.62%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.76%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -10.45%E -5.71%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.11%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.31%10.0%2026-09-06 01:45
Smarkets3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%13.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 36.03%1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%75.7%2026-09-05 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 36.03%1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%75.7%2026-09-05 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 36.03%1.78I 56.18%NM 31.98%75.7%2026-09-05 23:25