Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela v Braga

Início: 2026-09-10 19:15 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 2–1 Braga

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela (Local)

Previsão 19.43%5.15odd justa
EV +2.96%
Vantagem +0.559%
Kelly +0.688%
Crescimento +0.020%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.65%19.38%19.44%20.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.354.714.755.3022.99%21.23%21.05%18.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Braga (Visitante)

Previsão 55.38%1.81odd justa
EV -0.310%
Vantagem -0.172%
Kelly -0.387%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.66%55.33%55.44%57.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.581.691.701.8063.29%59.02%58.82%55.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.19%3.97odd justa
EV -4.28%
Vantagem -1.13%
Kelly -1.53%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.35%25.29%25.13%26.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.603.603.8029.85%27.76%27.78%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: CF Estrela (Local): 19.43%; Braga (Visitante): 55.38%; Empate: 25.19%. Para CF Estrela (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.15. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.96%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV +2.96%E +0.559%K +0.688%G +0.020%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.74%EV -10.28%E -6.35%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:06
FanDuel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -0.925%E -0.181%K -0.226%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.49%EV -10.83%E -6.73%K -17.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 14:39
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 16:41
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 16:30
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -8.06%E -4.86%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 14:40
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -8.62%E -5.22%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 14:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -6.96%E -4.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.47%EV -7.80%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:40
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -13.09%E -3.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 07:00
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -13.09%E -3.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 06:59
Pinnacle🎯4.89I 20.45%NM 19.42%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.05%EV -4.53%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 13:15
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 18.89%EV -5.78%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.21%EV -9.73%E -5.97%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.90%EV -7.30%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:31
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -4.19%E -2.42%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.71%EV -4.19%E -2.42%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 08:35
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 13:10
BetUS🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.75%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 13:15
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 09:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 08:35
Neds🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 08:35
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.28%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 16:01
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -6.96%E -4.14%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 15:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 14:36
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:26
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:26
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 13:26
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:40
Bet Victor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -8.62%E -5.22%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 12:30
betano_uk🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -8.62%E -5.22%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 12:28
Unibet (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.45%EV -12.49%E -7.91%K -21.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 16:25
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.24%EV -6.40%E -3.79%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.54%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -6.40%E -3.79%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -6.40%E -3.79%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:25
NetBet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -9.73%E -5.97%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 16:06
GTbets🎯4.61I 21.69%NM 20.73%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.09%EV -0.310%E -0.172%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.18%EV -8.06%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 02:00
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:20
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:21
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:21
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:21
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:20
Bally Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -1.97%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 17:20
BetMGM🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:35
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.51%E -4.50%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 14:36
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.28%E -6.35%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -6.80%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 16:25
BetRivers🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:20
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:21
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -4.74%E -2.76%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 17:26
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:20
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.66%EV -5.29%E -3.10%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:26
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.11%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.31%EV -11.39%E -7.12%K -18.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -9.32%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -15.49%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 17:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -15.49%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 17:21
LiveScore Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -15.49%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.68%EV -5.85%E -3.44%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -15.61%E -4.66%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 17:21
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎5.50I 18.18%NM 18.07%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-09-09 17:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-09-09 17:00
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.79%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-09-09 17:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.62%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-09-09 17:31
Smarkets◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.50%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%2.0%2026-09-09 16:51