Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 64.13%1.56fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -6.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.14%64.13%64.31%67.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.451.451.5172.99%69.02%68.97%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Excelsior (Visit)

Prediction 16.08%6.22fair odd
EV +9.33%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.150%

assuming max odds 6.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.71%16.01%15.82%17.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.705.606.8019.61%17.53%17.86%14.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.80%5.05fair odd
EV +0.958%
Edge +0.188%
Kelly +0.234%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.85%19.86%19.87%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.674.755.1023.26%21.41%21.05%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 64.13%; Excelsior (Visit): 16.08%; Draw: 19.80%. For Excelsior (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.22. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.07%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV +9.33%E +1.37%K +1.61%G +0.150%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -3.99%E -0.823%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 06:18
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.90%E +0.453%K +0.537%G +0.016%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 04:13
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.90%E +0.453%K +0.537%G +0.016%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 04:14
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -5.73%E -3.90%K -12.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +0.486%E +0.078%K +0.093%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.84%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV -0.318%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -3.00%E -0.613%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 14:14
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.33%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.66%EV -1.60%E -0.262%K -0.313%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.01%EV -5.18%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-21 04:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.02%E -0.204%K -0.256%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:10
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 22:04
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 17:48
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 17:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 07:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 18:14
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 07:52
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.05%EV -12.15%E -8.87%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.36%EV -6.75%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.59%EV -9.93%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.53%EV -5.73%E -3.90%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -1.02%E -0.204%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-17 08:50
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-17 18:24
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.62%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.63%EV -8.36%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.75%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-21 04:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 14:39
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:50
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:50
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 18:00
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 08:50
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 15:45
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 21:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 23:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 23:00
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 22:59
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 04:29
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 07:54
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.69%EV -3.17%E -2.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.47%EV -12.86%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.85%EV -5.58%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 02:00
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.36%EV -3.17%E -2.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.60%EV -13.98%E -2.61%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -6.96%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 21:41
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:50
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.62%EV -9.58%E -6.80%K -23.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.29%EV -7.95%E -1.71%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 09:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.50%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.19%EV -16.40%E -3.15%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.90%E -2.93%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-20 03:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.16%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.88%EV -16.40%E -3.15%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -12.90%E -2.93%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 63.00%EV -12.15%E -8.87%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.92%EV -18.00%E -3.53%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -14.88%E -3.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-16 14:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.78%1.1%2026-08-22 14:50
Smarkets1.51I 66.23%NM 63.12%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%4.9%2026-08-18 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 30.44%1.37I 72.99%NM 34.00%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.56%114.7%2026-08-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 30.37%1.36I 73.53%NM 34.16%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.47%115.2%2026-08-21 09:58
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 30.37%1.36I 73.53%NM 34.16%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.47%115.2%2026-08-21 09:44