Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior

Início: 2026-08-22 18:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Previsão 64.13%1.56odd justa
EV -3.17%
Vantagem -2.10%
Kelly -6.21%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.51

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
62.14%64.13%64.31%67.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.371.451.451.5172.99%69.02%68.97%66.23%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Excelsior (Visitante)

Previsão 16.08%6.22odd justa
EV +9.33%
Vantagem +1.37%
Kelly +1.61%
Crescimento +0.150%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.71%16.01%15.82%17.60%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.105.705.606.8019.61%17.53%17.86%14.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.80%5.05odd justa
EV +0.958%
Vantagem +0.188%
Kelly +0.234%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.85%19.86%19.87%21.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.304.674.755.1023.26%21.41%21.05%19.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 64.13%; Excelsior (Visitante): 16.08%; Empate: 19.80%. Para Excelsior (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.22. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.33%.

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.07%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV +9.33%E +1.37%K +1.61%G +0.150%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -3.99%E -0.823%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 06:18
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.90%E +0.453%K +0.537%G +0.016%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 04:13
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.90%E +0.453%K +0.537%G +0.016%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 04:14
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -5.73%E -3.90%K -12.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +0.486%E +0.078%K +0.093%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.84%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV -0.318%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -3.00%E -0.613%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 14:14
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.33%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.66%EV -1.60%E -0.262%K -0.313%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.01%EV -5.18%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-21 04:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.02%E -0.204%K -0.256%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:10
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 22:04
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 17:48
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 17:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 07:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 18:14
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 07:52
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.05%EV -12.15%E -8.87%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.36%EV -6.75%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.59%EV -9.93%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.53%EV -5.73%E -3.90%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -1.02%E -0.204%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-17 08:50
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-17 18:24
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.62%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.63%EV -8.36%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.75%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-21 04:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 14:39
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:50
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:50
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 18:00
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 08:50
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 15:45
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 21:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 23:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 23:00
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 22:59
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 04:29
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 07:54
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.69%EV -3.17%E -2.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.47%EV -12.86%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.85%EV -5.58%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 02:00
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.36%EV -3.17%E -2.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.60%EV -13.98%E -2.61%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -6.96%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 21:41
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:50
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.62%EV -9.58%E -6.80%K -23.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.29%EV -7.95%E -1.71%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 09:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.50%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.19%EV -16.40%E -3.15%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.90%E -2.93%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-20 03:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.16%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.88%EV -16.40%E -3.15%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -12.90%E -2.93%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 63.00%EV -12.15%E -8.87%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.92%EV -18.00%E -3.53%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -14.88%E -3.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-16 14:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.78%1.1%2026-08-22 14:50
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.12%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%4.9%2026-08-18 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 30.44%1.37I 72.99%NM 34.00%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.56%114.7%2026-08-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 30.37%1.36I 73.53%NM 34.16%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.47%115.2%2026-08-21 09:58
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 30.37%1.36I 73.53%NM 34.16%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.47%115.2%2026-08-21 09:44