Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-22 18:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prévision 64.13%1.56cote équitable
EV -3.17%
Avantage -2.10%
Kelly -6.21%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
62.14%64.13%64.31%67.07%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.371.451.451.5172.99%69.02%68.97%66.23%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Excelsior (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.08%6.22cote équitable
EV +9.33%
Avantage +1.37%
Kelly +1.61%
Croissance +0.150%

avec la cote maximale 6.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.71%16.01%15.82%17.60%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
5.105.705.606.8019.61%17.53%17.86%14.71%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 19.80%5.05cote équitable
EV +0.958%
Avantage +0.188%
Kelly +0.234%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 5.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.85%19.86%19.87%21.74%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.304.674.755.1023.26%21.41%21.05%19.61%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : NEC Nijmegen (Local) : 64.13% ; Excelsior (Visiteur) : 16.08% ; Match nul : 19.80%. Pour Excelsior (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 6.22. 4 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 6.80, soit une espérance positive de +9.33%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.07%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV +9.33%E +1.37%K +1.61%G +0.150%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -3.99%E -0.823%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 06:18
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.90%E +0.453%K +0.537%G +0.016%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 04:13
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +2.90%E +0.453%K +0.537%G +0.016%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 04:14
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -5.73%E -3.90%K -12.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +0.486%E +0.078%K +0.093%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.84%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV -0.318%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -3.00%E -0.613%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 14:14
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.33%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.66%EV -1.60%E -0.262%K -0.313%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.01%EV -5.18%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-21 04:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.07%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.05%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.88%EV +0.958%E +0.188%K +0.234%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-17 08:50
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.02%E -0.204%K -0.256%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:10
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 22:04
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 17:48
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 17:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 07:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 18:14
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -3.53%E -0.589%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 07:52
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.05%EV -12.15%E -8.87%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.36%EV -6.75%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.59%EV -9.93%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.53%EV -5.73%E -3.90%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -1.02%E -0.204%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-17 08:50
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 03:50
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -7.55%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-17 18:24
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.62%EV -4.45%E -2.99%K -9.08%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.63%EV -8.36%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.75%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-21 04:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 14:39
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.46%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.55%EV -3.60%E -0.738%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:50
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:50
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.06%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-17 08:54
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -3.81%E -2.54%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.98%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-21 18:00
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -7.02%E -4.84%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -5.97%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 08:50
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -5.09%E -3.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -13.89%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 15:45
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 21:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 23:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 23:00
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.66%E -5.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 22:59
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.92%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 04:29
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -11.57%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 07:54
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.69%EV -3.17%E -2.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.47%EV -12.86%E -2.37%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.85%EV -5.58%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 02:00
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.36%EV -3.17%E -2.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.60%EV -13.98%E -2.61%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -6.96%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 21:41
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:50
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.26%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -14.79%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-17 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.32%EV -8.94%E -6.30%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.94%E -1.94%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-17 08:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.62%EV -9.58%E -6.80%K -23.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -15.59%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.29%EV -7.95%E -1.71%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 09:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.50%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.19%EV -16.40%E -3.15%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.90%E -2.93%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-20 03:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.16%EV -10.86%E -7.82%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.88%EV -16.40%E -3.15%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -12.90%E -2.93%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 63.00%EV -12.15%E -8.87%K -32.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.92%EV -18.00%E -3.53%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -14.88%E -3.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-16 14:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.78%1.1%2026-08-22 14:50
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.12%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%4.9%2026-08-18 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 30.44%1.37I 72.99%NM 34.00%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.56%114.7%2026-08-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 30.37%1.36I 73.53%NM 34.16%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.47%115.2%2026-08-21 09:58
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 30.37%1.36I 73.53%NM 34.16%1.31I 76.34%NM 35.47%115.2%2026-08-21 09:44