The School of Odds
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Avispa Fukuoka v Cerezo Osaka

2026-08-15 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Prediction 35.21%2.84fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.42%35.29%35.04%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.592.602.7340.82%38.61%38.46%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cerezo Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 35.88%2.79fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.15%36.00%35.72%37.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.542.522.6842.02%39.38%39.60%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.340%
Kelly +0.477%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.98%28.71%29.25%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.203.173.5033.90%31.29%31.50%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 35.21%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 35.88%; Draw: 28.91%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.50, producing a positive expected value of +1.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -6.69%E -2.52%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -6.72%E -2.59%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV +1.19%E +0.340%K +0.477%G +0.006%4.8%2026-08-08 11:24
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -10.31%E -4.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -0.254%E -0.074%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 11:27
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -10.31%E -4.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -1.70%E -0.500%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 11:29
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -10.21%E -4.00%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.52%E -3.34%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -4.59%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 11:24
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.97%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.31%E -4.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -4.59%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:19
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.97%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -12.10%E -4.94%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -4.59%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 11:25
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -4.22%E -1.55%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.74%EV -4.21%E -1.58%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.18%EV -5.46%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 11:44
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.92%EV -3.87%E -1.42%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.57%EV -3.85%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.51%EV -6.61%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.08%EV -6.34%E -2.38%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.75%EV -6.36%E -2.44%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 11:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -4.22%E -1.55%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -8.93%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 12:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -4.22%E -1.55%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -8.93%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 12:20
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.74%E -2.96%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.00%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.37%E -3.35%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 11:39
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.74%E -2.96%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -6.00%E -2.29%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.37%E -3.35%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 11:39
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -13.73%E -5.60%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.51%EV -14.61%E -6.14%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%EV -10.37%E -3.35%K -4.94%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-08 11:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -13.73%E -5.60%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -12.10%E -4.94%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -11.82%E -3.88%K -5.77%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-08 11:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -13.73%E -5.60%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -13.90%E -5.79%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -13.26%E -4.42%K -6.63%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-08 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 34.70%EV -10.91%E -4.31%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.84%EV -12.10%E -4.94%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.46%EV -13.84%E -4.65%K -6.99%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-08 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -10.21%E -4.00%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.83%EV -12.10%E -4.94%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -14.71%E -4.99%K -7.54%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-08 11:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 34.87%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.87%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.26%9.0%2026-08-08 13:15