Language:English
Watford v Crawley Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Watford (Local)
Prediction 73.01%1.37fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -3.32%
Kelly -14.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.53%73.01%72.97%75.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.271.281.3183.33%78.96%78.13%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Crawley Town (Visit)
Prediction 9.98%10.02fair odd
EV +9.79%
Edge +0.890%
Kelly +0.979%
Growth +0.096%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.33%10.02%9.99%11.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.269.4011.0012.90%10.80%10.64%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.00%5.88fair odd
EV +4.24%
Edge +0.691%
Kelly +0.826%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 6.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.46%16.97%17.04%18.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.855.365.306.1320.62%18.65%18.87%16.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Watford (Local): 73.01%; Crawley Town (Visit): 9.98%; Draw: 17.00%. For Crawley Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.02. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +9.79%E +0.890%K +0.979%G +0.096% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.82%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +4.80%E +0.457%K +0.505%G +0.024% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 08:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.63%EV -10.19%E -8.29%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +4.80%E +0.457%K +0.505%G +0.024% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV +2.03%E +0.338%K +0.405%G +0.008% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -8.00%E -6.35%K -30.78%G +0.000% | 10.28I 9.73%NM 9.23%EV +2.61%E +0.253%K +0.281%G +0.007% | 6.13I 16.31%NM 15.48%EV +4.24%E +0.691%K +0.826%G +0.035% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.81%E -4.50%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -0.189%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -2.22%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.81%E -4.50%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -0.189%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -2.22%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.49%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -0.189%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 06:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.83%EV -5.81%E -4.50%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.45%EV -2.19%E -0.223%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -15.83%E -3.20%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.67%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.02%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.66%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -10.73%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -10.73%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -10.73%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.78%EV -9.46%E -7.63%K -39.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV +2.03%E +0.338%K +0.405%G +0.008% | 7.8% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -12.38%E -10.32%K -61.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -12.38%E -10.32%K -61.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -5.18%E -0.545%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.46%EV -7.27%E -5.73%K -26.93%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.03%EV -7.18%E -0.772%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -3.92%E -0.695%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.87%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 9.01I 11.10%NM 10.37%EV -10.07%E -1.12%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 17.76%EV -10.56%E -2.01%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV +2.03%E +0.338%K +0.405%G +0.008% | 7.8% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.03%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.73%EV -11.58%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -3.07%E -0.539%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.12%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.77%EV -17.53%E -3.61%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -10.19%E -8.29%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.32%EV -10.19%E -8.29%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -10.17%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -12.67%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -8.18%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.69%EV -12.67%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -8.18%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.17%EV -11.65%E -9.63%K -55.49%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.12%EV -12.67%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.71%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -5.08%E -3.91%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -15.16%E -1.78%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -10.92%E -8.95%K -49.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -15.16%E -1.78%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.91%EV -10.19%E -8.29%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -15.16%E -1.78%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.87%EV -8.00%E -6.35%K -30.78%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.04%EV -18.15%E -2.21%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.87%EV -8.00%E -6.35%K -30.78%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.04%EV -18.15%E -2.21%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -9.88%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -8.73%E -6.99%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -20.15%E -2.52%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -10.73%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.53%EV -7.27%E -5.73%K -26.93%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.56%EV -22.65%E -2.92%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.61% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.09% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.75% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.75% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.47% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 1.4% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |