Language:English
Vila Nova v Operario PR
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 40.95%2.44fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.25%40.96%40.85%43.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.272.252.3547.62%44.14%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Operario PR (Visit)
Prediction 28.05%3.57fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.478%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%27.94%28.12%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.253.6134.72%30.67%30.77%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.01%3.23fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%31.10%31.03%32.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.953.1037.04%33.94%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 40.95%; Operario PR (Visit): 28.05%; Draw: 31.01%. For Operario PR (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.33%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.68%EV +1.25%E +0.346%K +0.478%G +0.006% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 31.99%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -14.01%E -6.67%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -1.84%E -0.525%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.62%EV -5.00%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -8.84%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.62%EV -5.00%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -8.84%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.20%EV -8.28%E -3.70%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -10.70%E -3.72%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 21:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.20%EV -8.28%E -3.70%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -3.24%E -0.939%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -10.70%E -3.72%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.01%EV -7.46%E -3.30%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -4.64%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.74%EV -9.46%E -3.24%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-18 21:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -4.64%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -13.18%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-18 21:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -4.64%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -13.18%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-18 21:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -4.64%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -13.18%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-18 21:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -4.64%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -13.18%E -4.71%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-18 21:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.88%EV -6.23%E -2.72%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.70%EV -5.20%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -7.60%E -2.55%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.45%E -2.26%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -7.45%E -2.26%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -11.63%E -4.08%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.43%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -3.88%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.64%E -2.91%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%EV -7.60%E -2.55%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.64%E -2.91%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%EV -7.60%E -2.55%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.63%EV -7.46%E -3.30%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -11.96%E -5.56%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -8.85%E -2.72%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.44%EV -6.64%E -2.91%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 20:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.70%E -3.72%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.70%E -3.72%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.01%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.25%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.01%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 20:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.05%EV -6.64%E -2.91%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -11.65%E -3.70%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -11.65%E -3.70%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.53%E -2.89%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 20:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-18 20:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-18 20:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.08%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -13.06%E -4.21%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.70%E -3.72%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-18 20:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -15.86%E -5.29%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.98%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 20:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -19.23%E -6.68%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -16.28%E -6.03%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-18 20:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.87% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.68% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73% | 1.7% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.52% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.86% | 2.9% | 2026-04-18 21:25 |