The School of Odds

Vila Nova v Fortaleza

2026-07-22 00:35 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vila Nova (Local)

Prediction 35.81%2.79fair odd
EV -6.88%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.81%35.81%35.81%36.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.432.542.602.6041%39%38%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Fortaleza (Visit)

Prediction 34.73%2.88fair odd
EV -6.24%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -3.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.47%34.73%34.73%34.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.552.642.702.7039%38%37%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV -5.73%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%29.46%29.46%29.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.203.2033%32%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:34
Casumo2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:35
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:34
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:34
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:35
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:35
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.24%E -2.31%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 01:35
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.73%EV -8.67%E -3.30%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-15 01:35
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 36.14%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -9.71%E -3.74%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-15 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 35.90%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.91%EV -11.45%E -4.49%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-15 01:35
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 36.00%EV -12.25%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.59%EV -11.45%E -4.49%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-15 01:35
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 36.19%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.49%EV -11.45%E -4.49%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-15 01:35
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 36.19%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.49%EV -11.45%E -4.49%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-15 01:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.