Language:English
Vila Nova v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 37.09%2.70fair odd
EV -0.972%
Edge -0.364%
Kelly -0.582%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.02%37.00%37.27%38.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.472.452.6743.10%40.48%40.82%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 31.47%3.18fair odd
EV +0.692%
Edge +0.216%
Kelly +0.315%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.04%31.54%31.43%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.2036.36%34.43%34.48%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.44%3.18fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.814%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.93%31.47%31.30%33.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.932.943.1035.71%34.15%34.01%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 37.09%; Fortaleza (Visit): 31.47%; Draw: 31.44%. For Fortaleza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.692%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.08%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV +0.692%E +0.216%K +0.315%G +0.002% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.79%EV -7.55%E -2.57%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.49%EV -4.31%E -1.67%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.37%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.15%EV -10.70%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.49%EV -4.31%E -1.67%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.37%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.15%EV -10.70%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| SportsBet | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -10.38%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-22 00:05 |
| DraftKings | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-21 13:35 |
| Betway | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.81%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Bovada | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.31%EV -5.79%E -2.28%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.94%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-22 00:29 |
| FanDuel | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.38%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-22 00:00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-22 00:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -12.84%E -5.46%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -10.38%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Betsson | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -6.30%E -2.11%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-21 13:30 |
| NordicBet | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -6.30%E -2.11%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-21 13:35 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -5.42%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.08%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.61%EV -10.70%E -3.77%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| Unibet | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Casumo | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| betPARX | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.52%E -0.814%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-21 13:35 |
| BetUS | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.13%EV -5.79%E -2.28%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| 888sport | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| William Hill | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -9.13%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| BetMGM | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -10.99%E -4.58%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-21 18:15 |
| BetRivers | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -10.99%E -4.58%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -10.32%E -3.62%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -4.09%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-21 23:50 |
| PlayUp | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -10.32%E -3.62%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.96%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |
| 1xBet | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.02%EV -0.972%E -0.364%K -0.582%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.28%EV -11.58%E -4.12%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.70%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Coolbet | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -3.57%E -1.37%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-22 00:29 |
| theScore Bet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -5.42%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Grosvenor | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -12.84%E -5.46%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -12.84%E -5.46%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -11.73%E -4.93%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -9.44%E -3.28%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Neds | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -11.73%E -4.93%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -9.44%E -3.28%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| TABtouch | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.14%EV -13.58%E -5.83%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.12%EV -7.24%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.42%EV -12.10%E -5.10%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.90%EV -9.75%E -3.40%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| Coral | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.42%EV -12.10%E -5.10%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.89%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.90%EV -9.75%E -3.40%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -5.42%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| betfred_uk | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.44%E -3.28%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| betano_uk | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.99%E -4.58%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-22 00:29 |
| Bet Victor | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.99%E -4.58%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -5.67%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-22 00:29 |
| BoyleSports | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -11.73%E -4.93%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -8.81%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -13.95%E -6.01%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -8.81%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -13.95%E -6.01%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -8.81%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-22 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 1.0% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 1.0% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Matchbook | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-07-22 00:30 |
| Smarkets | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.17% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19% | 1.8% | 2026-07-22 00:25 |