Language:English
Vila Nova v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 42.06%2.38fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.38%42.13%42.10%44.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.202.3150.00%46.19%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV +3.23%
Edge +0.818%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.57%26.04%26.21%27.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.593.603.9530.77%27.82%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.75%31.84%31.69%33.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.852.883.0040.00%35.04%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 42.06%; Botafogo (Visit): 26.13%; Draw: 31.80%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -12.51%E -6.01%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -0.691%E -0.182%K -0.247%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.44%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-08 22:52 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -8.72%E -4.02%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.72%EV -1.21%E -0.321%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.71%EV -2.83%E -1.23%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.63%EV -1.74%E -0.462%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.66%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.00%EV -14.19%E -6.95%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -2.00%E -0.533%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -15.03%E -7.44%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -2.00%E -0.533%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -15.03%E -7.44%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -2.00%E -0.533%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.96%EV -5.77%E -2.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.64%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.96%EV -5.77%E -2.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.64%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -13.77%E -6.72%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.84%EV -15.87%E -7.94%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.69%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.61%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.75%EV -6.62%E -2.98%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.61%EV -5.39%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.64%EV -9.68%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.06%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.24%EV -8.73%E -3.04%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.76%EV -7.04%E -3.18%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.61%EV -10.00%E -3.53%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-08 22:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -5.23%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -5.23%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.57%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -11.14%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-08 22:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.14%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.14%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-08 22:58 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -12.45%E -3.72%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.38%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.70%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.92%EV -20.50%E -8.20%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.31% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.96% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.73% | 0.2% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.23% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.12% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65% | 2.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |