La escuela de los momiosVila Nova v Botafogo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Vila Nova (Local)
Predicción 42.06%2.38momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -1.23%
Kelly -2.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.31
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.38%42.13%42.10%44.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.162.202.3150.00%46.19%45.45%43.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Botafogo (Visitante)
Predicción 26.13%3.83momio equitativo
EV +3.23%
Ventaja +0.818%
Kelly +1.09%
Crecimiento +0.035%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.57%26.04%26.21%27.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.593.603.9530.77%27.82%27.78%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 31.80%3.14momio equitativo
EV -4.60%
Ventaja -1.53%
Kelly -2.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.75%31.84%31.69%33.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.852.883.0040.00%35.04%34.72%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Casumo | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| betPARX | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV +3.23%E +0.818%K +1.09%G +0.035% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetRivers | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -12.51%E -6.01%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -0.691%E -0.182%K -0.247%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.44%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-08 22:52 |
| 1xBet | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -8.72%E -4.02%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.72%EV -1.21%E -0.321%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.71%EV -2.83%E -1.23%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.63%EV -1.74%E -0.462%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.66%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Grosvenor | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.00%EV -14.19%E -6.95%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -2.00%E -0.533%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| TABtouch | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -15.03%E -7.44%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -2.00%E -0.533%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -15.03%E -7.44%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -2.00%E -0.533%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.96%EV -5.77%E -2.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.64%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.96%EV -5.77%E -2.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.64%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -13.77%E -6.72%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.84%EV -15.87%E -7.94%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.69%EV -3.30%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetUS | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -4.61%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.75%EV -6.62%E -2.98%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.61%EV -5.39%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.64%EV -9.68%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| DraftKings | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| FanDuel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betway | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| SportsBet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.06%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.24%EV -8.73%E -3.04%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Bovada | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.76%EV -7.04%E -3.18%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.61%EV -10.00%E -3.53%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-08 22:58 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| NordicBet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -5.23%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Betsson | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -8.30%E -3.81%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -5.23%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| theScore Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.57%EV -9.14%E -4.23%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| William Hill | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| 888sport | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.55%E -4.56%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Paddy Power | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Coolbet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.35%E -2.38%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -11.14%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-08 22:58 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.14%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.14%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-08 22:58 |
| PlayUp | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -12.45%E -3.72%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -9.37%E -3.29%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| BetMGM | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| betfred_uk | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.56%E -4.45%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.41%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.38%EV -11.66%E -5.55%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.70%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.92%EV -20.50%E -8.20%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Neds | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Coral | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.46%E -3.39%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -15.06%E -4.64%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.31% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.96% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.73% | 0.2% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-06-08 23:00 |
| Smarkets | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.23% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.12% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65% | 2.1% | 2026-06-08 22:59 |