Language:English
Ponte Preta v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 32.14%3.11fair odd
EV -1.000%
Edge -0.325%
Kelly -0.481%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%32.15%32.16%34.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.812.803.0838.02%35.54%35.71%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 35.72%2.80fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.93%35.88%35.69%37.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.592.602.7543.48%38.62%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.14%3.11fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.649%
Kelly -0.966%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.93%31.97%32.16%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.883.0537.04%34.68%34.78%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 32.14%; Vila Nova (Visit): 35.72%; Draw: 32.14%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.08, with an expected value of -1.000%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.33%EV -1.000%E -0.325%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.94%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -10.98%E -3.96%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.89%EV -2.93%E -0.970%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -3.91%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.31%EV -4.23%E -1.42%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-11 20:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -3.57%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -3.57%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.44%E -2.58%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -3.57%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -14.27%E -5.95%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-11 20:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.62%EV -5.82%E -1.99%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.77%EV -7.49%E -2.89%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.62%EV -8.73%E -3.07%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.48%EV -5.82%E -1.99%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.17%EV -8.92%E -3.50%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -8.41%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -8.41%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.79%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.44%E -2.58%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -7.84%E -3.04%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -7.44%E -2.58%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -7.84%E -3.04%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -7.44%E -2.58%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -7.43%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -6.41%E -2.45%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 20:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.31%EV -7.75%E -2.70%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.39%EV -6.41%E -2.45%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.31%EV -7.77%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -8.39%E -2.94%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.34%E -2.02%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.16%EV -8.71%E -3.07%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 35.68%EV -8.56%E -3.34%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.16%EV -8.73%E -3.07%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.16%EV -8.71%E -3.07%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 35.68%EV -8.56%E -3.34%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.16%EV -8.73%E -3.07%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.00%E -3.57%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.77%EV -5.34%E -2.02%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -8.41%E -2.95%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 20:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -10.00%E -3.57%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.00%E -3.57%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-11 20:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -10.00%E -3.57%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -17.84%E -7.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.47%EV -11.62%E -4.23%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.56%E -1.32%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.649%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 20:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.80%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.59%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.62%E -4.23%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.59%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.62%E -4.23%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.59%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.62%E -4.23%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 20:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.59%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.62%E -4.23%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 20:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -14.27%E -5.95%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -3.59%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-11 20:53 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.61%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.70%E -4.28%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.01%E -3.58%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 20:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.17%EV -13.21%E -4.89%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.08%EV -6.06%E -2.30%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -3.59%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-11 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -13.21%E -4.89%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -1.77%E -0.644%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -13.23%E -4.90%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-11 10:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -14.82%E -5.59%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.67%EV -6.06%E -2.30%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-11 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -14.82%E -5.59%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -7.13%E -2.74%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -5.19%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 20:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.03%EV -15.46%E -5.88%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.10%EV -8.92%E -3.50%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.86%EV -6.80%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-11 20:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.03%EV -15.46%E -5.88%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.10%EV -8.92%E -3.50%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.86%EV -6.80%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-11 20:18 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.03%EV -15.46%E -5.88%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.10%EV -8.92%E -3.50%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.86%EV -6.80%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-11 20:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46% | 1.0% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46% | 1.0% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46% | 1.0% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.59% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 1.1% | 2026-04-11 20:55 |