The School of Odds

Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino

2026-07-18 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Fortaleza (Local)

Prediction 46.03%2.17fair odd
EV -7.02%
Edge -3.48%
Kelly -6.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.66%46.03%46.03%46.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.911.982.022.0252%50%50%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)

Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.94%25.19%25.19%25.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.453.643.753.7529%27%27%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.79%3.47fair odd
EV -6.45%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%28.79%28.79%29.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.253.2533%32%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:49
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:50
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:49
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:49
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:49
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:50
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.29%EV -7.02%E -3.48%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.55%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 00:49
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 46.03%EV -9.33%E -4.73%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 00:50
Grosvenor1.95I 51.28%NM 45.91%EV -10.25%E -5.25%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -10.59%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-11 00:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.82%EV -10.71%E -5.52%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -10.59%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.14%EV -12.20%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-11 00:50
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 45.78%EV -11.17%E -5.79%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.25%EV -11.84%E -3.38%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.97%EV -12.20%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-11 00:50
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 45.66%EV -12.09%E -6.33%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.28%EV -13.10%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.07%EV -13.64%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-11 00:49
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 45.66%EV -12.09%E -6.33%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.28%EV -13.10%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.07%EV -13.64%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-11 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.