Language:English
Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 44.26%2.26fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.38%44.35%44.14%46.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.062.062.1551.55%48.48%48.54%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV +0.202%
Edge +0.052%
Kelly +0.070%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%25.75%25.81%27.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.553.8830.30%28.27%28.17%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.91%3.34fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.854%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%29.90%30.04%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.083.2533.33%32.34%32.41%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 44.26%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 25.83%; Draw: 29.91%. For Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.202%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.16%EV -5.73%E -2.69%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.79%EV +0.202%E +0.052%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.06%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-17 23:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -13.69%E -7.02%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -1.86%E -0.490%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-17 23:29 |
| 1xBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 24.80%EV -2.64%E -0.700%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -7.56%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| BetUS | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| DraftKings | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.02%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -5.74%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -5.77%E -1.83%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| SportsBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Casumo | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betPARX | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Coolbet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 14:39 |
| FanDuel | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.10%EV -7.86%E -2.55%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-17 23:23 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:10 |
| theScore Bet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:10 |
| Betsson | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.17%E -2.91%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| NordicBet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.17%E -2.91%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| Bovada | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 23:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betway | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 888sport | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| William Hill | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetRivers | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -9.71%E -4.76%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| betfred_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-17 23:09 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Coral | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| Grosvenor | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.32%EV -12.81%E -6.50%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.11%EV -12.81%E -6.50%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.14%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.06%EV -13.25%E -6.76%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -14.14%E -7.29%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -14.14%E -7.29%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betano_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-17 23:49 |
| Neds | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.46% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.64% | 0.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:35 |
| Smarkets | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.33% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75% | 1.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |