L’École des cotesFrançais
Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Fortaleza (Local)
Prévision 44.26%2.26cote équitable
EV -4.84%
Avantage -2.25%
Kelly -4.21%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.15
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.38%44.35%44.14%46.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.942.062.062.1551.55%48.48%48.54%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visiteur)
Prévision 25.83%3.87cote équitable
EV +0.202%
Avantage +0.052%
Kelly +0.070%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.88
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.72%25.75%25.81%27.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.543.553.8830.30%28.27%28.17%25.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 29.91%3.34cote équitable
EV -2.78%
Avantage -0.854%
Kelly -1.23%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.25
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.73%29.90%30.04%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.093.083.2533.33%32.34%32.41%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.16%EV -5.73%E -2.69%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.79%EV +0.202%E +0.052%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.06%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-17 23:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -13.69%E -7.02%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -1.86%E -0.490%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-17 23:29 |
| 1xBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 24.80%EV -2.64%E -0.700%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -7.56%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| BetUS | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| DraftKings | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.02%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -5.74%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -5.77%E -1.83%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| SportsBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Casumo | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betPARX | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Coolbet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 14:39 |
| FanDuel | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.10%EV -7.86%E -2.55%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-17 23:23 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:10 |
| theScore Bet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:10 |
| Betsson | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.17%E -2.91%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| NordicBet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.17%E -2.91%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| Bovada | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 23:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betway | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 888sport | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| William Hill | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetRivers | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -9.71%E -4.76%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| betfred_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-17 23:09 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Coral | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| Grosvenor | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.32%EV -12.81%E -6.50%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.11%EV -12.81%E -6.50%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.14%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.06%EV -13.25%E -6.76%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -14.14%E -7.29%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -14.14%E -7.29%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betano_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-17 23:49 |
| Neds | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.46% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.64% | 0.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:35 |
| Smarkets | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.33% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75% | 1.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |