La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Fortaleza (Local)
Predicción 44.26%2.26momio equitativo
EV -4.84%
Ventaja -2.25%
Kelly -4.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.38%44.35%44.14%46.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.942.062.062.1551.55%48.48%48.54%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante)
Predicción 25.83%3.87momio equitativo
EV +0.202%
Ventaja +0.052%
Kelly +0.070%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.88
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.72%25.75%25.81%27.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.543.553.8830.30%28.27%28.17%25.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 29.91%3.34momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -0.854%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.73%29.90%30.04%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.093.083.2533.33%32.34%32.41%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.16%EV -5.73%E -2.69%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.79%EV +0.202%E +0.052%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.06%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-17 23:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -13.69%E -7.02%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -1.86%E -0.490%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-17 23:29 |
| 1xBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 24.80%EV -2.64%E -0.700%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -7.56%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| BetUS | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -5.28%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.45%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| DraftKings | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.02%EV -4.84%E -2.25%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -5.74%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -5.77%E -1.83%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| SportsBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Casumo | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betPARX | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -8.82%E -4.28%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.78%E -0.854%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Coolbet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 14:39 |
| FanDuel | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.27%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.10%EV -7.86%E -2.55%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-17 23:23 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:10 |
| theScore Bet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.03%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:10 |
| Betsson | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.17%E -2.91%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| NordicBet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -6.17%E -2.91%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| Bovada | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 23:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -8.32%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betway | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 888sport | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| William Hill | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetRivers | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.62%EV -9.71%E -4.76%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| betfred_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-17 23:09 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Coral | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.48%E -5.74%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.61%E -2.75%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| Grosvenor | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.32%EV -12.81%E -6.50%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.11%EV -12.81%E -6.50%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.14%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.05%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -7.94%E -3.82%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.06%EV -13.25%E -6.76%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -8.76%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -14.14%E -7.29%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.10%EV -14.14%E -7.29%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betano_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-17 23:49 |
| Neds | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.27%E -4.52%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.26%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.46% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.64% | 0.4% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97% | 0.9% | 2026-07-17 23:35 |
| Smarkets | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.33% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75% | 1.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |