Language:English
Criciuma v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Criciuma (Local)
Prediction 50.19%1.99fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.59%50.05%50.23%52.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.851.851.9457.14%54.13%54.05%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV -0.032%
Edge -0.007%
Kelly -0.009%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.40%21.40%21.22%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.154.204.7027.03%24.07%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.54%3.50fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%28.56%28.55%29.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.3833.33%31.30%31.25%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Criciuma (Local): 50.19%; Sport Recife (Visit): 21.27%; Draw: 28.54%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.701. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.700, with an expected value of -0.032%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -2.64%E -1.36%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -15.98%E -4.05%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.64%E -1.90%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -15.98%E -4.05%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -4.38%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.64%E -1.90%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -15.98%E -4.05%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -4.38%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.64%E -1.90%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -15.98%E -4.05%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -4.38%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.64%E -1.90%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -15.98%E -4.05%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -4.38%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -4.14%E -2.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -4.14%E -2.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.71%EV -5.15%E -2.72%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 20.93%EV -2.58%E -0.564%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.36%EV -3.52%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -5.65%E -3.00%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -5.65%E -3.00%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.59%EV -5.65%E -3.00%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -19.17%E -5.05%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.86%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -6.15%E -3.29%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -6.41%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 19:03 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.66%EV -6.15%E -3.29%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -17.05%E -4.37%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-04 18:51 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -6.15%E -3.29%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.29%E -0.952%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.29%E -0.952%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.09%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.60%EV -7.52%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 19:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -19.17%E -5.05%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -14.37%E -4.79%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -14.37%E -4.79%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-04 19:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -14.37%E -4.79%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -14.37%E -4.79%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.62%EV -7.15%E -3.87%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.49%EV -20.24%E -5.40%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%EV -12.94%E -4.24%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.76%EV -7.66%E -4.16%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 20.85%EV -4.71%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.39%EV -6.09%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.41%EV -7.66%E -4.16%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -20.24%E -5.40%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.41%EV -7.66%E -4.16%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -20.24%E -5.40%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -4.29%E -0.952%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -4.29%E -0.952%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.90%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-04 19:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -5.35%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-04 18:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.16%E -4.46%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.45%EV -9.16%E -5.06%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -21.30%E -5.76%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -10.09%E -3.20%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -6.41%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.77%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -7.90%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -6.41%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -6.41%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -6.41%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -7.90%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.95%EV -10.95%E -3.51%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.51%EV -9.66%E -5.37%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.39%EV -17.05%E -4.37%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -14.37%E -4.79%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.10%EV -12.17%E -6.96%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -0.032%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -8.66%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.20% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.29% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.51% | 2.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.20% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.29% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.51% | 2.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.49% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.52% | 4.2% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.15% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.38% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47% | 4.4% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |