Language:English
Ceará v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 36.01%2.78fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.52%36.05%36.05%38.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.502.7142.55%39.79%40.00%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 31.68%3.16fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.425%
Kelly +0.618%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.26%31.68%31.70%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.982.933.2038.02%33.58%34.13%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.31%3.09fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.09%32.28%32.25%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.842.853.0038.46%35.23%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 36.01%; Fortaleza (Visit): 31.68%; Draw: 32.31%. For Fortaleza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.36%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV +1.36%E +0.425%K +0.618%G +0.008% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -12.49%E -5.14%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -0.224%E -0.071%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -4.68%E -1.58%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 21:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -13.57%E -5.66%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -0.224%E -0.071%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.91%E -2.77%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -14.29%E -6.01%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -1.81%E -0.583%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.91%E -2.77%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -14.29%E -6.01%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -1.81%E -0.583%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.54%EV -2.41%E -0.889%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.48%EV -3.07%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.98%EV -5.64%E -1.93%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -15.37%E -6.54%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -15.37%E -6.54%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -15.37%E -6.54%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.37%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -3.06%E -1.02%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 21:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.17%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-15 00:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.17%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-15 00:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.13%EV -2.77%E -1.03%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-17 21:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -3.06%E -1.02%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 21:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -4.57%E -1.72%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-17 21:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.37%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.51%EV -7.19%E -2.45%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -7.09%E -2.75%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -7.51%E -2.57%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -6.94%E -2.41%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 21:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -7.09%E -2.75%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -7.51%E -2.57%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -6.94%E -2.41%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 21:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.29%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 21:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -5.65%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.93%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.72%EV -8.55%E -3.02%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 21:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.13%EV -5.29%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 21:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -5.65%E -2.16%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.17%EV -8.17%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.80%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.03%EV -6.94%E -2.41%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 21:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -8.17%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -7.91%E -2.77%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 21:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -11.77%E -4.80%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-17 20:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.14%E -4.05%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.14%E -4.05%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.14%E -4.05%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.14%E -4.05%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.14%E -4.05%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.37%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -11.14%E -4.05%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -13.57%E -5.66%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -6.94%E -2.41%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 21:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.73%EV -13.57%E -5.66%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.61%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.65%EV -12.75%E -4.72%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-17 20:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -8.17%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -9.73%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.29%E -2.17%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -8.17%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.67%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 21:23 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -2.77%E -1.03%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -16.06%E -6.06%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -9.52%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-17 21:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.34%EV -9.97%E -3.99%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.64%EV -16.69%E -6.35%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.02%EV -15.98%E -6.15%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-17 21:11 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15% | 0.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15% | 0.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15% | 0.5% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07% | 0.8% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.11% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 21:25 |