Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v Juventude
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 35.95%2.78fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.04%35.97%35.92%37.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.502.6541.67%39.64%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juventude (Visit)
Prediction 31.90%3.13fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.356%
Kelly -0.525%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.22%31.81%31.97%32.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.953.1037.04%34.08%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.15%3.11fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%32.22%32.11%35.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.842.853.0039.22%35.18%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 35.95%; Juventude (Visit): 31.90%; Draw: 32.15%. For Juventude (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.29%EV -4.73%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.33%EV -2.06%E -0.671%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.38%EV -4.53%E -1.52%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-17 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -4.73%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.17%E -1.75%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.04%EV -4.73%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.58%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.38%EV -18.03%E -7.07%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-16 05:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.76%EV -5.09%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.78%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 18:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.76%EV -5.09%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.78%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 18:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.76%EV -5.09%E -1.93%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.78%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 18:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.81%E -2.22%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.56%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -9.08%E -3.19%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.56%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 17:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 18:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -6.53%E -2.51%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -9.08%E -3.19%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -7.24%E -2.81%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -7.24%E -2.81%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 18:26 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -8.32%E -3.26%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -8.38%E -2.94%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 18:32 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -8.32%E -3.26%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -5.17%E -1.75%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.85%EV -8.32%E -3.26%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.08%E -3.19%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.38%E -2.94%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-17 18:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -1.10%E -0.356%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -3.56%E -1.19%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-17 06:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.08%E -3.19%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.60%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 18:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.60%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 18:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.60%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -11.60%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -7.42%E -2.58%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 06:06 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -13.21%E -4.89%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-17 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.60%E -4.22%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-17 17:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -10.12%E -4.05%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -13.86%E -5.13%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -16.42%E -6.32%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-17 18:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -11.92%E -4.86%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -8.38%E -2.94%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 18:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -11.92%E -4.86%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -8.38%E -2.94%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 18:56 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.92%E -4.86%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.92%E -4.86%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.92%E -4.86%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-17 17:26 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.92%E -4.86%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -12.64%E -5.20%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.44%EV -13.72%E -5.71%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 18:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.44%EV -13.72%E -5.71%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 18:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.44%EV -13.72%E -5.71%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -9.99%E -3.57%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.13% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.13% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 18:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.13% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.95% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.27% | 1.5% | 2026-05-17 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.85% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.96% | 1.8% | 2026-05-17 18:55 |