Language:English
Naomi Osaka v Karolina Muchova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Naomi Osaka (Local)
Prediction 56.65%1.77fair odd
EV +0.274%
Edge +0.155%
Kelly +0.356%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.91%56.62%56.69%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.671.7765.36%60.51%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Karolina Muchova (Visit)
Prediction 43.35%2.31fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.795%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%43.38%43.31%46.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.222.202.3548.31%45.05%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Naomi Osaka (Local): 56.65%; Karolina Muchova (Visit): 43.35%. For Karolina Muchova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -9.92%E -6.24%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 5.4% | 2026-07-07 15:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.567%E +0.244%K +0.430%G +0.002% | 7.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.567%E +0.244%K +0.430%G +0.002% | 7.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -1.17%E -0.512%K -0.912%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-07-07 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -1.60%E -0.705%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.60%E -0.705%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -2.03%E -0.900%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-07-07 14:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -2.03%E -0.900%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-07 15:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-07 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-07 14:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-07 14:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-07 14:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.22%E -5.08%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 14:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.22%E -5.08%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -13.32%E -8.71%K -25.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-07 15:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.77%E -1.70%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 14:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-07 14:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 14:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 14:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 14:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-07 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.50%E -2.52%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.50%E -2.52%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-07 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -1.99%E -1.15%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -5.93%E -2.74%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -5.93%E -2.74%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.37%E -2.95%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.43%E -0.819%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-07 14:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 14:56 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.22%E -5.08%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV +0.274%E +0.155%K +0.356%G +0.001% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -10.27%E -4.96%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-07 14:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36% | 2.1% | 2026-07-07 15:10 |