L’École des cotes

Naomi Osaka v Karolina Muchova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-07 15:14 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Naomi Osaka (Local)

Prévision 56.65%1.77cote équitable
EV +0.274%
Avantage +0.155%
Kelly +0.356%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 1.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.91%56.62%56.69%59.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.531.651.671.7765.36%60.51%59.88%56.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Karolina Muchova (Visiteur)

Prévision 43.35%2.31cote équitable
EV +1.87%
Avantage +0.795%
Kelly +1.38%
Croissance +0.026%

avec la cote maximale 2.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.05%43.38%43.31%46.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.072.222.202.3548.31%45.05%45.45%42.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -9.92%E -6.24%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%5.4%2026-07-07 15:09
Unibet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Casumo1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Unibet (NL)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Unibet (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Svenska Spel1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.06%E -7.04%K -19.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +1.87%E +0.795%K +1.38%G +0.026%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.567%E +0.244%K +0.430%G +0.002%7.2%2026-07-07 15:10
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.567%E +0.244%K +0.430%G +0.002%7.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 15:10
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 15:10
PMU (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 15:10
Bally Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -11.62%E -7.45%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.300%E -0.130%K -0.231%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 15:10
Pinnacle1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -1.17%E -0.512%K -0.912%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-07 15:00
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -1.60%E -0.705%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-07 14:50
BetOnline.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.60%E -0.705%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-07 14:50
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -2.03%E -0.900%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-07 14:59
FanDuel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -2.03%E -0.900%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-07 15:08
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-07 14:55
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-07 14:54
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 14:59
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 14:49
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 14:50
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 15:10
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.22%E -5.08%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 14:55
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.22%E -5.08%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -13.32%E -8.71%K -25.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-07 15:10
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-07 15:09
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.77%E -1.70%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 14:55
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 14:49
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 14:55
Dabble (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 14:50
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 14:50
TAB1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 14:50
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:50
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:55
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:50
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-07 14:45
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 15:00
PointsBet (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 14:50
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 15:10
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.50%E -2.52%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 15:10
MyBookie.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.50%E -2.52%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-07 14:59
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -1.99%E -1.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -5.93%E -2.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-07 15:10
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -5.93%E -2.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 14:50
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.37%E -2.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 15:10
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.43%E -0.819%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 15:10
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.12%E -1.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 14:54
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-07 15:10
BetAnything1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-07 14:50
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-07 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-07 14:50
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-07 15:10
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 15:10
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 15:10
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 15:10
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 14:56
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:10
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:10
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:10
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.22%E -5.08%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.97%E -4.27%K -8.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 15:10
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV +0.274%E +0.155%K +0.356%G +0.001%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -10.27%E -4.96%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 14:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00%0.2%2026-07-07 15:10
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-07-07 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-07-07 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-07-07 15:10
ProphetX1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-07-07 15:10
Novig1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-07 15:10
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%2.1%2026-07-07 15:10