Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 67.32%1.49fair odd
EV +0.984%
Edge +0.656%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.77%67.10%67.33%69.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.21%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 32.68%3.06fair odd
EV +0.974%
Edge +0.315%
Kelly +0.466%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 3.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.87%32.90%32.67%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.822.853.0938.46%35.45%35.09%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 67.32%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 32.68%. For Aryna Sabalenka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.984%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV +0.984%E +0.656%K +1.97%G +0.019% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -13.73%E -5.20%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-05 16:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.82%EV -1.71%E -1.17%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.18%EV -3.93%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.30%EV -1.71%E -1.17%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -14.06%E -5.35%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -13.40%E -5.06%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -13.40%E -5.06%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -14.06%E -5.35%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.35%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.65%EV -2.95%E -0.992%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-05 16:18 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 16:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 16:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.38%E -5.49%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.38%E -5.49%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.38%E -5.49%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.01%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.99%EV -0.660%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-05 16:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 16:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -15.04%E -5.78%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -15.04%E -5.78%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.97%E -0.656%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 16:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 16:26 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -0.333%E -0.109%K -0.163%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 16:29 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.97%E -0.656%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -3.93%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 16:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 16:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 16:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.89%E -2.04%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.89%E -2.04%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 16:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.13%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.87%EV +0.974%E +0.315%K +0.466%G +0.005% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-05 16:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.77%E -5.67%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -1.97%E -0.656%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 16:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.44%E -6.21%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-05 16:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37% | 2.0% | 2026-07-05 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.97% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.03% | 2.3% | 2026-07-05 16:30 |