La escuela de los momios

Aryna Sabalenka v Naomi Osaka

Inicio: 2026-07-05 16:34 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Predicción 67.32%1.49momio equitativo
EV +0.984%
Ventaja +0.656%
Kelly +1.97%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.77%67.10%67.33%69.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.21%70.42%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Naomi Osaka (Visitante)

Predicción 32.68%3.06momio equitativo
EV +0.974%
Ventaja +0.315%
Kelly +0.466%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.09

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.87%32.90%32.67%36.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.822.853.0938.46%35.45%35.09%32.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV +0.984%E +0.656%K +1.97%G +0.019%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -13.73%E -5.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 16:19
Unibet (NL)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:30
Casumo1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:30
Unibet (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:30
Unibet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:30
Svenska Spel1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.04%E -0.705%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 16:30
Pinnacle1.46I 68.49%NM 66.82%EV -1.71%E -1.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.18%EV -3.93%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-05 16:30
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.30%EV -1.71%E -1.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -14.06%E -5.35%K -8.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 16:30
Grosvenor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -13.40%E -5.06%K -8.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 16:30
TABtouch1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -13.40%E -5.06%K -8.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 16:30
Bally Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -2.38%E -1.64%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -14.06%E -5.35%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 16:30
BetOnline.ag1.44I 69.44%NM 67.35%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.65%EV -2.95%E -0.992%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-05 16:15
Bovada1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 16:18
Dabble (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 16:30
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 16:20
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 16:30
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 16:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.14%E -3.69%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 16:30
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 16:30
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 16:30
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.38%E -5.49%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 16:30
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.38%E -5.49%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 16:30
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -14.38%E -5.49%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 16:30
GTbets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.01%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.99%EV -0.660%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-05 16:19
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-05 16:15
ReBet1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-05 16:14
BetAnything1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-05 16:15
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 16:30
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -15.04%E -5.78%K -9.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-05 16:30
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -15.04%E -5.78%K -9.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-05 16:30
theScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.97%E -0.656%K -0.984%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-05 16:30
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 16:15
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 16:30
Fanatics1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 16:15
Hard Rock Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 16:29
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 16:30
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 16:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 16:15
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 16:26
NetBet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 16:19
Unibet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -0.333%E -0.109%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-05 16:15
BetRivers1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:15
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 16:30
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 16:30
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 16:29
MyBookie.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -5.08%E -3.60%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:25
BetUS1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.97%E -0.656%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:15
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -3.93%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 16:19
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:25
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:29
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:30
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 16:19
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.89%E -2.04%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 16:25
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.89%E -2.04%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 16:29
Betsson1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 16:30
NordicBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -6.54%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 16:30
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 16:30
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 16:29
Fliff1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -6.42%E -4.62%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 16:25
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 69.13%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.87%EV +0.974%E +0.315%K +0.466%G +0.005%4.8%2026-07-05 16:30
Caesars1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.24%E -1.81%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 16:14
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 16:30
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.77%E -5.67%K -21.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -1.97%E -0.656%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 16:15
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.44%E -6.21%K -23.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 16:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-07-05 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-07-05 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-07-05 16:20
Matchbook1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-07-05 16:25
ProphetX1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%0.9%2026-07-05 16:30
Novig1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%2.0%2026-07-05 16:25
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 66.97%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.03%2.3%2026-07-05 16:30