Language:English
Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jessica Pegula (Local)
Prediction 82.67%1.21fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -13.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.85%82.33%82.79%84.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.161.161.1889.29%86.36%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leylah Fernandez (Visit)
Prediction 17.33%5.77fair odd
EV +4.83%
Edge +0.799%
Kelly +0.957%
Growth +0.046%
assuming max odds 6.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.74%17.67%17.21%21.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.275.326.0522.73%18.97%18.80%16.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jessica Pegula (Local): 82.67%; Leylah Fernandez (Visit): 17.33%. For Leylah Fernandez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.77. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -6.58%E -5.82%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV +4.83%E +0.799%K +0.957%G +0.046% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 09:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19%EV +2.23%E +0.379%K +0.456%G +0.010% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 09:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.31%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.84I 17.12%NM 16.69%EV +1.19%E +0.204%K +0.247%G +0.003% | 2.6% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV +0.501%E +0.086%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV -0.366%E -0.064%K -0.077%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 10:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%EV -1.23%E -0.216%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -6.58%E -5.82%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -1.23%E -0.216%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 05:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -2.96%E -0.529%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 06:08 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -2.96%E -0.529%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -2.96%E -0.529%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.79%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.21%EV -3.31%E -0.593%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.79%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.21%EV -3.31%E -0.593%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 06:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 05:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 05:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.58%E -5.82%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.58%E -5.82%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.58%E -5.82%K -50.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.41%E -6.61%K -61.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.70%E -0.854%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.48%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.52%EV -5.39%E -0.987%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 05:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -6.43%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.39%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.38I 18.59%NM 17.61%EV -6.78%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 06:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.97%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 18.03%EV -7.82%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.35%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.65%EV -7.82%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 05:58 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.35%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.65%EV -7.82%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -9.03%E -1.72%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -9.03%E -1.72%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.03%E -1.72%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.03%E -1.72%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 14:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.75%E -5.05%K -41.10%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -9.03%E -1.72%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 19:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 19:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 10:43 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 05:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.27%E -2.80%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 03:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 19:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 19:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 19:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.93%E -4.28%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.36%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -15.09%E -3.08%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 10:41 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -4.10%E -3.53%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -17.69%E -3.72%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -2.45%E -2.07%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -23.76%E -5.40%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-03 10:27 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 0.7% | 2026-09-03 14:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.70% | 6.06I 16.50%NM 16.30% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.24% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.76% | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |